Global warming is consuming vast portions of the planet with a swagger that defies all expectations. Rivers in the Amazon rainforest are drying up. This is not supposed to be happening to such an extent, even during the dry season. After all, it’s a “rainforest” famous for sparkling dew, thick, wet fog with moisture dripping in midair surrounded by an eerie stillness that’s occasionally interrupted by a caw, buzz, shriek, scuttle or click.
“Despite still being in winter, Brazil is expected to record one of the highest temperatures in the world this weekend, comparable to places such as Iran and Iraq. A heat wave has affected all regions of the country, and is mainly causing harm to the Amazon region, which is experiencing one of its driest periods in recent years.” (Source: Heat Wave Turns Amazon States Into ‘Smoke Belt’, The Brazilian Report, September 22, 2023)
Global-warming-enhanced drought has turned into a monster that has battered the Amazon Rainforest every 3-5 years with frequency and severity never before witnessed that puts into question the survivability of large portions of one of the world’s major carbon sinks that’s essential for meeting international targets to limit global warming established at Paris ‘15. Which may already be passé.
According to NASA: “The rainforest doesn’t react like it used to. It does not have enough time between droughts to heal itself and regrow. Throughout all of recorded history, this has never been witnessed.” (Source: Amazon Rainforest is Drying Out. How Much More Abuse Can It Take? DownToEarth, June 29, 2020) That was two years ago; it’s gotten worse.
“In 2021 it was discovered that due to deforestation, parts of the rainforest started emitting more carbon than it held.” (Source: Amazon Deforestation—How much of the Rainforest Is Left? Sentient Media, October 13, 2023)
In only 50 years, twenty percent (20%) of the rainforest has been purposely destroyed. Scientists believe this is uncomfortably close to the “breaking point” when the forest collapses in on itself, transitioning to a scrubby savannah. The worldwide implications are impossible to describe and likely horrifying.
NASA’s GRACE satellite system shows an Amazon in tenuous condition in an unprecedented state of breakdown. GRACE has detected large areas of the Amazon classified as “Deep Red Zones” with severely constrained water levels.
Whereas, elsewhere in the world of normal everyday life people wake up every morning in cities like LA and NYC and Atlanta and Dallas and go about daily routines, the same ole, same ole, hop into a new EV, motor the freeway to an underground parking garage, up an elevator 2o floors to air-conditioned offices for 8 hours and then reverse the process. These people do not live where climate change devastates ecosystems. Urban ecosystems mainly consist of concrete, asphalt, glass, and a sprinkling of flora. What’s to harm other than people? And the reality of an urban resident visualizing a failing rainforest is difficult. In their mind’s eye, a rainforest landscape is like “painting by numbers,” a one-dimensional piece of fine art that only serves to fool the foolish.
S0uth of the equator indigenous tribal people are desperately urging the national government to declare a climate emergency for survival. Life is brutal. Indigenous tribes need government help just to survive. Villages have no drinking water, food, or medicine due to brutal drought that is drying up rivers that are vital to travel in the rainforest. Drought, excessive heat, has killed thousands upon thousands of fish that they depend upon. Rivers have turned into muddy streams.
Brazil is experiencing a more serious version of the unprecedented drought that nearly dried up Europe’s famed rivers like the Rhine, Po, Loire, and Danube in the summer of 2022, demonstrating the overarching reach of this new more pronounced cycle of global warming that’s haunting the planet.
APIAM, an organization that represents 63 tribes, has reached out to the national government for help. After all, the tribes did not emit tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, causing global heat that’s killing flora and fauna, as outsiders illegally burn vast swaths of rainforest to grow crops and raise cattle that’s sent north. Frankly, the north/south juxtaposition demonstrates moronic neocolonialism to an extreme.
“The Rio Negro, Solimoes, Madeira, Jurua, and Purus rivers are drying up at a record pace, and forest fires are destroying the rainforest in new areas in the lower Amazon reaches, APIAM said in a statement.” (Amazon’s Indigenous People Urge Brazil to Declare a National Emergency as Rivers Dry Up, Reuters, October 10, 2023)
“The level of the Rio Negro is dropping by 1 meter (3 feet) every three days, something that has never been recorded before.” (Source: Amazon Drought Cuts River Traffic, Leaves Communities Without Water and Supplies, Mongabay, October 2023)
“The Madeira River to the southwest is no longer navigable in its upper reaches, isolating Indigenous villages and non-Indigenous communities that rely on collecting fruit in the rainforest but cannot move their produce out… the smoke from forest fires is worse than ever, aggravating the climate crisis and affecting the health of the elderly and children. It is not just the El Nino current. Deforestation continues with the fires… The agricultural advance does not stop. They are destroying everything, as if they do not see what is happening to nature,” Ibid. In Amazonas state, nearly 7,000 fires were reported in September alone, the second-highest figure for the month since satellite monitoring began in 1998.
It’s not just indigenous tribes that suffer. Big ag companies Cargill, Bunge, and Amaggi are reducing loads of grains on river barges as a precaution as several got stuck in mud. And the shipping logistics group Moller-Maersk warned customers that navigation to Manaus, the largest Amazonian city, population 2 million, is not possible. Maersk said in a separate statement that severe drought has hit 60 of the 62 municipalities in Amazonas state, temporarily suspending cabotage service to and from Manaus.
“Communities dependent on the Amazon rainforest’s waterways are stranded without supply of fuel, food, or filtered water. Dozens of river dolphins perished and washed up on shore. And thousands of lifeless fish float on the water’s surface. These are just the first grim visions of extreme drought sweeping across Brazil’s Amazon. The historically low water levels have affected hundreds of thousands of people and wildlife and, with experts predicting the drought could last until early 2024, the problems stand to intensify.” (‘Without Water, there is no Life’: Drought in Brazil’s Amazon is Sharpening Fears for the Future, AP News, October 8, 2023)
“Our results show that overall, the Amazon Basin is becoming almost neutral in terms of carbon balance because deforestation, degradation, and the impacts of warming, frequent droughts, and fires over the past two decades release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.” (NASA).
Yet all of humanity depends upon the wonders of the rainforest to absorb and store carbon and release refreshing oxygen as well as its powerful hydrology system, forming clouds and rain that travel as far away as the cornfields of Iowa. But the rainforest is stunted and beaten down onto her knees. This radical, abrupt change of the rainforest clashes with everything that Paris ’15 stands for. Global warming has become public enemy number one.
Will COP28/Dubai, the big UN climate conference of nations coming up soon, do something constructive that helps the once-spectacular Amazon rainforest, or will it continue the well-worn COP tradition of all-talk, no walk?
And when is it too late? Nobody knows. It depends upon whether humans can exist in a sterilized world without nature’s ecosystems for support. The first ever apocalyptic science fiction to depict a sterilized world: The Last Man (1805) by Jean-Baptiste Francois Xavier Cousin de Grainville is more relevant than ever before, 218 years later.
“In the magic mirrors thou beholdest around, the last man will stand revealed to thy sight. There, as on a stage, where the actors represent heroes who are no more, thou shalt hear him converse with the most illustrious personages of the last ages of the world, read in his soul his most secret thoughts and be the witness and judge of his last actions.” (from chapter 1 – The Last Man)
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Fukushima nuclear accident (Radiation hotspot in Kashiwa-Image in the public domain)
Fukushima Up Close, 13 Years Later
By Robert Hunziker
The world is turning to nuclear power as a solution to global warming, but it is postulated herein that it is a huge mistake that endangers society. One nuclear meltdown causes as much damage over the long-term as a major war. Moreover, according to Dr. Paul Dorfman, chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group, former secretary to the UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Internal Radiation: “It’s important to understand that nuclear is very likely to be a significant climate casualty.”
Also, of interest, Google: “France’s Global Warming Predicament,” which discusses nuclear energy’s vulnerability in a global warming world.
Beyond Nuclear International recently published an article about the status of Fukushima as well as an exposé of how the nuclear industry gets away with responsibility for radiation-caused (1) deaths (2) chronic conditions like cancer (3) genetic deformities: A Strategy of Concealment, September 24, 2023, by Kolin Kobayashi, who is a Tokyo-born France-based anti-nuclear activist journalist also serving as president of Echo-Exchange. Kobayashi’s work was posted by CounterPunch under the title: How Agencies That Promote Nuclear Power Are Quietly Managing Its Disaster Narrative.
The following synopsis, including editorial license that adds important death details which defy the nuclear industry’s bogus claims about nuclear safety, opens closed pathways to what’s really going on.
After thirteen years, the declaration of a State of Emergency for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant still cannot be lifted because of many unknowns, as well as ubiquitous deadly radiation levels. The destroyed reactors are tinderboxes of highly radioactive spent fuel rods that contain more cesium-137 than eighty-five (85) Chernobyls. Cesium-137 in or near a human body erupts into a series of maladies, one after another in short order, depending upon level of exposure: (1) nausea (2) vomiting (3) diarrhea (4) bleeding (5) coma leading to death.
The spent fuel rods at the Fukushima nuclear reactor site are stored in pools of water on the top floor of compromised reactor buildings 100 feet above ground level, except for Unit 3 which completed removal of its spent fuel rods in 2019, an extremely slow, laborious process that’s highly dangerous.
Stored spent fuel rods in open pools of water are the epitome of high-risk. “If the 440 tonne vessel collapses, it could hit the storage pool next to it. If this pool is damaged, even partially, another major disaster could occur.” (Kobayashi) In that regard, there’s significant risk of collapse in the event of a strong earthquake. And Japan is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. “The city (Tokyo) government’s experts reckon there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7, or higher, quake hitting the capital within the next 30 years.” (Source: Japan is Preparing for a Massive Earthquake, The Economist, August 31, 2023)
If exposed to open air, spent fuel rods erupt into a sizzling zirconium fire followed by massive radiation bursts of the most toxic material on the planet. It can upend an entire countryside and force evacuation of major cities. According to the widely recognized nuclear expert Paul Blanch: “Continual storage in spent fuel pools is the most unsafe thing you could do.” Paul Blanch, registered professional engineer, US Navy Reactor Operator & Instructor with 55 years of experience with nuclear engineering and regulatory agencies, is widely recognized as one of America’s leading experts on nuclear power.
Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant will remain a high-risk explosive scenario for decades ahead. After all, a program for future decommissioning is unclear and overall radiation guesstimates are formidable. All the structures where decommissioning will take place are highly radioactive and as such nearly impossible for the dangers to worker exposure.
TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company) does not yet know the true extent of damage nor the complete dispersion of corium (molten magma from melted nuclear fuel rods in the core of the reactors). Although engineers believe they’ve located the corium in all three crippled units. For example, when unit 1 was surveyed by a robot, images showed many parts of the concrete foundation supporting the pressure vessel severely damaged by intense heat from corium. Corium, which is the product of the meltdown of fuel rods in the core of the reactor, is so hot that “corium lava can melt upwards of 30cm (12 inches) of concrete in 1 hour.” (Source: The Most Dangerous (Man-Made) Lava Flow, Wired, April 10, 2013)
Furthermore, on specific point: Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory created corium at 2000°C in an experiment. The experiment demonstrated that “cooling with water may not be sufficient” to halt damaging aspects of corium to concrete. According to the Argonne experiment: “One thing to remember — much of the melting of concrete during a meltdown occurs within minutes to hours, so keeping the core cool is vital for stopping the corium from breaching that containment vessel.”
In the case of Fukushima, TEPCO claims the corium did not breach the outer wall of the containment vessels, “although there is a healthy debate about this,” Ibid. Still, an open question remains. The crippled reactors are so hot with radiation that it’s nearly impossible to fully know what’s happening. Dangers of corium: “Long after the meltdown, the lava constituting the corium will remain highly dangerously radioactive for decades-to-centuries.” (Wired)
Regarding the decision to start releasing radioactive water from storage tanks at Fukushima, which water accumulates daily for purposes of keeping the hot stuff from igniting into an indeterminate fireball, the decision to release was approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency: “The IAEA does not have the scientific authority to make reference to the ecological impact of this water discharge, nor has it carried out such a long-term assessment. It is more of a political decision than a scientific one.” (Kobayashi)
Radiation Risks to Society
According to the World Nuclear Association, there were no fatalities due to radiation exposure at Fukushima. And as recently as 2021, Forbes magazine reported No one Died From Radiation At Fukushima: IAEA Boss. It is believed this is a lie and part of a massive coverup.
According to Green Cross (founded in 1993 by Mikhail Gorbachev, who repeatedly spoke out about interrelated threats humanity and our Earth confront from nuclear arms, chemical weapons, unsustainable development, and the human-induced decimation of the planet’s ecology): “Approximately 32 million people in Japan are affected by the radioactive fallout from the nuclear disaster in Fukushima… This includes people who were exposed to radiation and other stress factors resulting from the accident and who are consequently at potential risk from both long and short-term consequences… As with the Chernobyl nuclear accident, which impacted 10 million people, Japan is expected to see increased cancer risk and neuropsychological long-term health consequences.”
With nuclear radiation, the damage to humans shows up years later as cancer and/or deformity of newborns second/third generation. For example, only recently, the truth has come to surface about Chernobyl-related deaths, child deformities, and cancer 30+ years after the event. For example:
* A BBC Future Planet article d/d July 25, 2019, The True Toll of the Chernobyl Disaster: “According to the official, internationally recognized death toll, just 31 people died as an immediate result of Chernobyl while the UN estimates that only 50 deaths can be directly attributed to the disaster. In 2005, it predicted a further 4,000 might eventually die as a result of the radiation exposure… Brown’s research, however, suggests Chernobyl has cast a far longer shadow.”
* “The number of deaths in subsequent decades remains in dispute. The lowest estimates are 4,000; others 90,000 and up to 200,000.” (Source: Janata Weekly: Cuba and the Children of Chernobyl, May 7, 2023)
* According to an article in USA Today d/d February 24, 2022, What Happened at Chernobyl? What to Know About Nuclear Disaster: “At least 28 people were killed by the disaster, but thousands more have died from cancer as a result of radiation that spread after the explosion and fire. The effects of radiation on the environment and humans is still being studied.”
According to Chernobyl Children International, 6,000 newborns are born every year in Ukraine with congenital heart defects called “Chernobyl Heart.”
Fukushima Report: The stress-related effects of Fukushima evacuation and subsequent relocation are also a concern. The evacuation involved a total of over 400,000 individuals, 160,000 of them from within 20km of Fukushima. The number of deaths from the nuclear disaster attributed to stress, fatigue and the hardship of living as evacuees is estimated to be around 1,700 so far. (Source; Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant Disaster: How Many People Were Affected? 2015 Report, Reliefweb, March 9, 2015.
The Fukushima Report was prepared under the direction of Prof. Jonathan M. Samet, Director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Southern California (USC), as a Green Cross initiative. Green Cross International: GCI is an independent non-profit and nongovernmental organization founded in 1993 by Nobel Peace Laureate Mikhail Gorbachev.
Over time, Japan is expected to see increased cancer risks and neuropsychological long-term health consequences. “The lives of approximately 42 million people have been permanently affected by radioactive contamination caused by the accidents in the Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants. Continued exposure to low-level radiation, entering the human body on a daily basis through food intake, is of particular consequence,” Ibid.
Fukushima Deaths
The cocksure pro-nuclear crowd has trumpeted Fukushima as an example of Mother Nature taking lives because of an earthquake and tsunami; whereas the power plant accident proves nuclear power can withstand the worst without unnecessary death and illness. According to nuclear industry reports, all the deaths (16,000) were the fault of Mother Nature, not radiation.
But people in the streets and on the ground in Japan tell a different story about the risks of radiation. They talk about illnesses and death. TEPCO itself has reported few radiation illnesses and no radiation-caused deaths but what if it’s not their responsibility in the first instance, as layers of contractors and subcontractors employ workers to cleanup the toxic mess. If “subcontractor workers die” from radiation exposure, so what? It’s not TEPCO’s responsibility to report worker deaths of subcontractors, and the subcontractors are not motivated to report deaths, which are not reported.
According to credible sources in Japan, death is in the air, to wit: “The ashes of half a dozen unidentified laborers ended up at a Buddhist temple in this town just north of the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant. Some of the dead men had no papers, others left no emergency contacts. Their names could not be confirmed, and no family members had been tracked down to claim their remains. They were simply labeled ‘decontamination troops’ — unknown soldiers in Japan’s massive cleanup campaign to make Fukushima livable again five years after radiation poisoned the fertile countryside… Hideaki Kinoshita, a Buddhist monk… keeps the unidentified laborers’ ashes at his temple, in wooden boxes and wrapped in white cloth.” (Source: Mari Yamaguchi, Fukushima ‘Decontamination Troops’ Often Exploited, Shunned, AP & ABC News, Minamisoma, Japan, Mar 10, 2016)
“The men were among the 26,000 workers — many in their 50s and 60s from the margins of society with no special skills or close family ties — tasked with removing the contaminated topsoil and stuffing it into tens of thousands of black bags lining the fields and roads. They wipe off roofs, clean out gutters and chop down trees in a seemingly endless routine… Coming from across Japan to do a dirty, risky and undesirable job, the workers make up the very bottom of the nation’s murky, caste-like subcontractor system long criticized for labor violations,” Ibid.
The following is part of an interview with Katsutaka Idogawa, former mayor of Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture. (Source: Fukushima Disaster: Tokyo Hides Truth as Children Die, Become Ill from Radiation – Ex-Mayor, RT, April 21, 2014):
SS (question): The United Nations report on the radiation fallout from Fukushima says no radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have been observed among the workers and general public exposed – so it’s not that dangerous after all? Or is there not enough information available to make proper assessments? What do you think?
Katslutaka Idogawa’s response: “This report is completely false. The report was made by a representative of Japan – Professor Hayano. Representing Japan, he lied to the whole world. When I was mayor, I knew many people who died from a heart attack, and then there were many people in Fukushima who died suddenly, even among young people. It’s a real shame that the authorities hide the truth from the whole world, from the UN. We need to admit that actually many people are dying. We are not allowed to say that, but TEPCO employees also are dying. But they keep mum about it.”
Mako Oshidori, interviewed in Germany, director of Free Press Corporation/Japan, investigated several unreported worker deaths, and interviewed a former nurse who quit TEPCO: “I would like to talk about my interview of a nurse who used to work at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) after the accident… He quit his job with TEPCO in 2013, and that’s when I interviewed him… As of now, there are multiple NPP workers that have died, but only the ones who died on the job are reported publicly. Some of them have died suddenly while off work, for instance, during the weekend or in their sleep, but none of their deaths are reported.” (Oshidori)
“Not only that, but they are also not included in the worker death count. For example, there are some workers who quit the job after a lot of radiation exposure… and end up dying a month later, but none of these deaths are either reported, or included in the death toll. This is the reality of the NPP workers.” (Oshidori)
During her interview, Ms. Oshidori commented, “There is one thing that really surprised me here in Europe. It’s the fact that people here think Japan is a very democratic and free country.”
Alas, two hundred U.S. sailors of the USS Ronald Reagan filed a lawsuit against TEPCO, claiming that they experienced leukemia, ulcers, gall bladder removals, brain cancer, brain tumors, testicular cancer, dysfunctional uterine bleeding, thyroid illness, stomach ailments and other complaints extremely unusual in such young adults. One sailor died from radiation complications. Among the plaintiffs was a sailor who was pregnant during the mission. Her baby was born with multiple genetic mutations.
The sailors that filed the suit participated in “Operation Tomodachi,” providing humanitarian relief after the March 11th, 2011 Fukushima disaster based upon assurances that radiation levels were okay. But that was a lie.
Ultimately, and unsurprisingly, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the sailors’ appeal.
In summation, the final word is left to Kolin Kobaryashi: “The international nuclear lobby, which represents only a minority, has the influence and money to dominate the world’s population with immense power and has now united the world’s minority nuclear community into one big galaxy. Many of the citizens who have experienced the world’s three most serious civil nuclear accidents have clearly realized that nuclear energy is too dangerous. These citizens are so divided and conflicted that they feel like a helpless minority.”
“Former prime ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Naoto Kan called on the European Union on Thursday to pursue a path toward zero nuclear power, with the bloc planning to designate it as a form of “green” energy in achieving net-zero emissions by midcentury.” (Source: Ex-Prime Ministers Koizumi and Kan Demand EU Choose Zero Nuclear Power Path, The Japan Times, Jan. 27, 2022)
“Five former Japanese prime ministers issued declarations that Japan should break with nuclear power generation on March 11, the 10th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami that triggered a nuclear disaster in Fukushima Prefecture… Former prime ministers Morihiro Hosokawa, Tomiichi Murayama, Junichiro Koizumi, Yukio Hatoyama and Naoto Kan signed and released their declarations during the conference. Among them, Koizumi, Hatoyama and Kan took to the podium and shook hands… In his declaration titled ‘Don’t hold back on reversing a mistake: A zero-carbon emission society can be achieved without nuclear power plants,’ Koizumi said, ‘When it comes to the nuclear power plant issue, there is no ruling party or opposition party. Nuclear power plants expose many people’s lives to danger, bring financial ruin, and cause impossible-to-solve nuclear waste problems. We have no choice but to abolish them.” (Source: 5 ex-Japan PMs Call for Country to End Nuclear Power Use on Fukushima 10th Anniversary, The Mainichi, March 12, 2021)
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The past couple of years in Antarctica have been a rough and tumble affair of erratic climate change with record-high temperatures and totally unexpected ice shelf collapse. The continent is starting to reflect the impact of a warming planet that’s just too hot for icy comfort. So, what surprises will this year’s summer season bring?
At the tail end of Antarctica’s 2022 summer, during the start of autumn/March ‘22, temperatures along the eastern coast spiked 70°F (39°C) above normal. Scientists called it “unthinkable.” According to Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington: “We found that temperature anomaly, the 39-degree temperature anomaly, that’s the largest anywhere ever measured anywhere in the world.” (Source: Scientists Found the Most Intense Heat Wave Ever Recorded – in Antarctica, The Washington Post, September 24, 2023)
Within weeks, the unthinkable happened in East Antarctica. Conger Ice Shelf suddenly collapsed. According to NASA: “It is relatively common for ice shelves in Antarctica to spawn icebergs, it is less common for an ice shelf to completely disintegrate. The collapse has reshaped a part of the Antarctic landscape where coastal glacial ice was once thought to be stable. The change happened fast… All of the previous collapses have taken place in West Antarctica, not East Antarctica, which until recently has been thought of as relatively stable. This is something like a dress rehearsal for what we could expect from other, more massive ice shelves if they continue to melt and destabilize. Then we’ll really be past the turnaround point in terms of slowing sea level rise” (Source: Ice Shelf Collapse in East Antarctica, Earth Observatory, NASA, March 29, 2022).
Antarctica’s upcoming summer of 2023 with sunshine 24/7 from October thru February will bring a new season that is especially notable considering the fact that global warming strutted its stuff during Antarctica’s dark winter months of March-to-October 2023, setting new high temperature records and especially true of global warming’s impact on abnormally high ocean temperatures, which serve to undercut and weaken ice shelves: “The Southern Ocean has warmed substantially.” (Source: Southern Ocean Warming and its Climatic Impacts, Science Bulletin, Vol. 68, Issue 9, May 15, 2023) thus creating higher risks for 90% of the world’s surface water that’s impermanently locked in ice.
Already, strange things may be happening. For example, according to a non-authoritative source, the crucial Pinning Point 5 is gone at Thwaites/Pine Island glaciers. That source claims this risks an acceleration of glacial flow and termed the occurrence ‘”an emergency,” but that has not been verified by other sources. It should be noted that the source has a reasonable track record of following Antarctic events that later make news. (Source: Pinning Point Five Collapsed, the Sea Ice Barrier Buttressing Thwaites and Pine Island Glacier, Daily Kos, Sept. 29, 2023)
Along the way, the erratic behavior of the climate system over the past 18-24 months is of major concern, as global heat has enveloped the planet, setting records from the peaks of the tallest mountains in the Alps to the deepest interior of Antarctica, almost as if the climate system is programmed to keep turning up the thermostat, regardless of location, regardless of time, whatever season. Of course, this is as threatening to survival of Antarctica’s icy stature as it is fatal to the world’s coastal cities.
Polar Amplification in Antarctica
Times are changing fast as Antarctica, like its cousin up north, heats up much faster than the rest of the planet. According to Dr. Mathieu Casado, Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environment/France, there is direct evidence that Antarctica is undergoing “polar amplification.” (Source: Ice Cores Reveal Antarctica is Warming Twice as Fast as Global Average, CarbonBrief, September 13, 2023)
In plain English, it’s heating up much faster than the overall planet, which is horribly threatening news. In fact, the study found the continent is heating up per decade as much as 50% over climate models. This is a shocker to climate scientists and should be of serious concern to any sane/grounded person. It speaks to the necessity of taking immediate action by nation/states to convert energy systems to renewables.
According to the Casado study, Antarctica’s warming “is almost twice as strong as global warming estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) … also 20-50% larger than the estimates from the climate models used to produce the IPCC reports -even in East Antarctica, which was believed to be largely unaffected by climate change so far.” Accordingly, the study anticipates “dire consequences for the low-lying lands… further warning of the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, even in one of the most remote parts of the world.”
Therefore, sea level rise as currently anticipated by consensus opinion is very likely too low in terms of potential and resultant coastal impacts, including calculations used by the IPCC, underestimating global warming’s impact on Antarctica by a wide margin.
It is instructive to look at the latest IPCC report, which is a synthesis d/d March 2023 that integrates the findings from its Sixth Assessment Report Cycle, stating: “Climate change is widespread, rapid, and intensifying… There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all. Choices made this current decade will impact us now and for thousands of years.” (Source: IPCC Climate Change Reports: Why They Matter to Everyone on the Planet, National Resources Defense Council, April 14, 2023) Thus, the IPCC puts the decade of the 2020s on a pedestal of achievement that must be achieved, or it’ll crash.
According to the IPCC’s Best-Case analysis: “If the world bands together to slash emissions immediately, the world can avoid the most catastrophic version of the climate crisis, but it will continue to warm until at least mid-century, due to the impact of past emissions.” For example, some changes that are already set in motion, like sea level rise, are irreversible over many decades. Adaptation is necessary.
In point of fact, the Casado study adds a haunting new perspective to the 6th Assessment Report, i.e., Antarctica’s warming is almost twice as strong as stated by the IPCC. In the final analysis, the study means the IPCC vastly understates the impact of global warming on Antarctica, which can only mean that low-lying coastal cities should build massive sea walls.
After all, according to the Miami Herald regarding southern Florida, within the next couple of years: Some Keys Roads Will Flood by 2025 Due to Sea Rise, Fixing Them Could Cost $750 Million, Miami Herald, Oct. 21, 2021.
And this: “Several parts of coastal North Carolina could fall victim to extreme flooding in the very near future… several portions of North Carolina can be seen below the annual flood level by the year 2030,” Breaking News, Fox8/North Carolina, July 21, 2023.
Indeed, mainstream news outlets like the Miami Herald and Fox8 News are ringing the bell at the town square, warning about sea level rise flooding portions of Florida and North Carolina… real soon!
And this: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Gulf Coast region saw more than a 1,000% increase in the number of high tide flooding days in 2020 over the past two decades. (Source: Gulf Coast Sea Level Rising at ‘Unprecedented’ Rate, Recent Studies Find, Houston Public Media, April 12, 2023)
In turn, all above brings to surface questions about motives of people who denigrate, attack, and belittle the climate change issue, human-caused global warming, and renewables thereby serving to block or interfere with nationwide efforts to do something constructive. Their line of thinking is extraordinarily dangerous to the country in the face of actual flooding events along America’s coasts that are locked loaded and ready for more action very soon. Mainstream news has clearly identified impending danger.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea level rise over the next 30 years will equal the past 100 years. “In the United States, the most vulnerable populations live on the East and Gulf Coasts… The acceleration of sea level rise along these coasts is ‘unprecedented in at least 120 years.” (Source: Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified by Internal Climate Variability, Nature Communications, April 2023)
The Antarctic summer of 2023 is on shaky footing as global heat is on the march worldwide like never before, and it knows no boundaries from south to north, every ecosystem everywhere is fair game. Of course, a major concern is rapid acceleration of ice shelf disintegration, especially fragile West Antarctica where Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier are already the fastest changing and most unstable glaciers in the world. Incidentally, Thwaites has a nickname: The Doomsday Glacier.
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Antarctica Hits Records as Global Heat Looms Large for 2024
By Robert Hunziker
“Climate breakdown has begun. Our climate is imploding faster than we can cope,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. (Source: 2024 Likely to be Hottest Year on Record, Phys.org, September 6, 2023)
A report from the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) released by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Berlin in the spring of 2023 reveals how surprisingly fast the icy continent is changing and its impact on the world. At current levels of global warming, the planet is already committed to approximately 16 inches of global sea level rise, “which turns what was once considered a one in 100-year coastal flood event into an annual one.” (Source: Report: Antarctic is Changing Dramatically with Global Consequences, Phys.org, June 13, 2023)
Annual 100-year coastal flooding events puts one billion people at annual risks of losing homes, coastlines, and port facilities… every year! Maybe build sea walls… everywhere, worldwide? After all, sea level rise is not going to stop on its own. In fact, already, according to the Miami Herald: “Many of the main roads in the Florida Keys could be under water as soon as 2025.” (Source: Some Keys Roads Will Flood by 2025 Due to Sea Rise, Fixing Them Could Cost $750 Million, Miami Herald, Oct. 21, 2021)
Moreover, the 33rd annual State of the Climate Report published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society/Boulder discusses the vast extremes in Antarctica, which interestingly mirror similar climate extremes throughout the planet. It seems that climate change/global heating is synchronized throughout the world, which is likely a first of wide-spread implications, none positive.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has experienced “enhanced warming” and is starting to lose ice much more rapidly than scientists ever expected at this early juncture. Meanwhile, in the heart of the continent, temperatures blew past all records, 79°F (44°C) higher than average March temperatures; a weather station recorded a balmy 14.7°F in the interior where temperatures on average run -71°F.
Of even more concern, an Antarctic heat wave occurred during the transition period from summer to winter when the temperature always drops rapidly, but that normalized behavior looks to be gone for now.
Like the rest of the planet, Antarctica experiences heat waves as well as intense unprecedented precipitation via atmospheric rivers, which in the north regions of the planet turn into massive, destructive flooding. Antarctica had a tripling of normalized snowfall. Thus, a new concern is future atmospheric rivers bringing enhanced heat causing more rapid melt and/or rain that gooses sea levels well beyond current expectations. Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica bring a new threat of indeterminate dimensions to sea level rise. Importantly, “Antarctica is the driest continent on Earth. The rare snowfall events on the cold Antarctic continent usually come from so-called atmospheric rivers (ARs)… they only occur a few days per year.” (Source: Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Antarctic Precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters, September 7, 2022) Antarctica just had a tripling of normal snowfall as climate change extends abnormalities to the southern-most regions of the planet.
The Antarctica issue will likely get worse as highlighted by a new report claiming that the pace of CO2 concentration has increased three-fold, due mostly to burning fossil fuels, the primary force behind global warming. (Source: State of the Climate Report, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) The NOAA report noted that CO2 levels are: (1) 50% higher than pre-industrial (2) the highest in the modern atmospheric record (3) the highest in the paleoclimate records over the past 800,000 years. And annual growth in global mean carbon dioxide, when averaged across the last decade, “has tripled since the 1960s.” Averaged annual growth over a decade that triples is flat-out fast.
The NOAA report emphasizes the fact that the world is running too warm aka: hot. China, for example, endured “the worst heat wave ever recorded anywhere in the world in 2022,” disrupting major sectors of the country. The massive heatwave caused widespread power shortages and disrupted key food and industrial supply chains. Coincidentally, China’s economy is on the ropes in a big way, hmm.
As for 2023, Pigs, Rabbits and Fish Are Dying from Searing Temperatures in China, CNN Business News, June 2, 2023, as wheat fields flood with the heaviest rainfall in a decade. Radical climate change officially erupted in China with many large cities hitting 40°C (104°F) and staying there for some time.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is focusing on food security, as quoted in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s main theoretical journal: “Once something’s wrong with agriculture, our bowls will be held in someone else’s hands, and we’ll have to depend on others for food. How can we achieve modernization in that case?” Ibid.
According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the past eight years are the hottest on record with 2023 set to be hotter than any of them, the hottest year in human history, whilst 20% of global land gets hit hard by drought. Excessive heat is hitting everywhere, e.g., the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of volume in one year. Consider that rate over another decade, or two, and what remains?
Copernicus’ Update, September 2023: Antarctic sea ice remained at a record low for the time of year with a monthly value 12% below average, which is “by far the largest anomaly for August since satellite observations began in the 1970s.” How many more 12% below averages does it take to throw a wrench into predictions of 16 inches of sea level rise already baked into the cake? And that’s just for starters based upon what’s been happening so far.
The El Niño Threat – it’s going to get worse.
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which increases heat in the southern Pacific and spreads across the world has only just begun. Scientists say its worst effects will be felt at the end of 2023, into 2024 and possibly beyond. Unfortunately, with the world climate system now synchronized and determined by global warming’s impact, it’s highly probable that Antarctica will get hit even harder, especially West Antarctica, which has been notoriously labeled “fragile.”
According to Mark Maslin, a professor of climatology at University College London: “2023 is the year that climate records were not just broken but smashed… extreme weather events are now common and getting worse every year—this is a wakeup call to international leaders.” (Source: 2023 Likely to be Hottest Year on Record, Phys,org, September 6, 2023).
“Global warming continues because we have not stopped burning fossil fuels—it is that simple,” Friederike Otto, climate scientist, Imperial College London, Ibid.
Meanwhile, with great anticipation, COP28 is in bright flashing lights: The largest, the most extravagant, the most anticipated, the most attended, the most world leader photo-ops (100+). the most private jets, the most golden embroidered structures, the favorite playground of petrostates, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly referred to as COP28, will be the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference, held from November 30 until December 12, 2023, at the Expo City, Dubai.
It’s fair to say that COP28 will be confronted with the most challenging, the most tumultuous climate system in human history.
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Earth’s climate system is in a state of emergency. Emergencies are defined by four specific elements, i.e., (1) seriousness (2) unexpected (3) dangerous, and (4) requiring immediate action. Based upon a new YouTube broadcast by the inveterate commentator Dr. Peter Carter, all those elements are in-play in a very big way.
Dr. Carter, expert reviewer of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and director of the Climate Emergency Institute, posted a 26:33 minute YouTube update on the status of our climate system: Climate Emergency Update Sept. 2023. In his broadcast, the elements of an emergency are clearly related to the planet’s climate system.
Dr. Carter’s broadcasts are closely followed by people looking for answers to what’s really happening. Indeed, it is rare, in fact, almost impossible to find a source that truly lays it out without pulling any punches. His presentations are excellent, filled with factually backed statements that are brought to life with emphasis. Indeed, Dr. Carter is a rare personality, a breath of fresh air in today’s world of cynicism, disinformation, and the tendency to ignore difficult choices, especially the challenging status of the planet’s climate system. It is the one thing that we must “get right.”
The following synopsis, including editorial comment, highlights the issues as seen by Dr. Peter Carter:
In his opening statement he starts by reporting the state of the climate today as “worse… than ever before,” emphasizing the fact that it’s actually “much worse than ever before.” He suggests: “If it seems to you that the climate situation is getting worse, yes, it is. There’s no question about that, and it’s been getting worse for a long time. That’s what the science has told us, for example, in scientifically based assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”
For years, his motto has been: “Everything is getting worse faster.”
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) identifies the climate’s status as “a major climate disruption that’s driven by atmospheric CO2.” In that regard, the risks to the planet’s climate system have increased substantially, as atmospheric CO2 and methane are higher than they’ve ever been whilst increasing faster than ever before. Carter: “It’s a recipe for an overwhelmingly destructive global warming scenario.” And, frankly, that’s what’s been starting to appear on TV.
Ocean surface temperature has been off-the-charts, rapidly increasing like never before. According to Carter: Fossil fuel impact is adding heat to the oceans at the rate of 10 Hiroshima bombs per second. Moreover, he claims it’s at least that amount and some sources claim it’s even higher than 10 Hiroshima bombs per second. Of course, one problem with comparisons like 10 Hiroshima bombs/second is the impossibility of imagining that scope, which unfortunately causes people to fail to get it.
Meanwhile, the hard truth is that it was thirty years ago 1992 in Rio de Janeiro at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that 166 countries initially agreed that global warming needed to be counteracted. Over the subsequent 30 years nothing has happened. Meantime, the science has been hard at work, essentially confirming: “We are headed for the collapse of the biosphere… we are on a rapid trend of biosphere collapse” (YouTube, 4:52 min).
This fatal destiny of biosphere collapse is the result of a world economy agenda that’s designed “to burn all of the fossil fuels.” However, as if by the sleight of hand, it’s claimed, by pro-growth and pro-fossil fuel interests, we’ll be able to geo-engineer our way out of the quagmire of excessive atmospheric Co2, not-to-worry. But, according to Dr. Carter: “That is absolute nonsense.” More on the carbon capture ruse later.
The Methane Threat
Methane is coming into focus as an extremely troublesome threat with scientists on edge like never before. Over the past couple of years, since 2019-20, methane emissions have been explosive, which is precisely how scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refer to today’s methane emissions: “Explosive!”
Even worse yet, Carter highlights what he refers to as “the newest terrible news”: “We have methane feedback,” meaning the explosive increase in methane emissions is hands free on auto pilot; it’s the wetlands! This is really bad news because the feedback is literally running wild. Carter: “This is what we have been dreading for decades.”
Even more troubling yet, most scientific models have claimed we did not have to worry about this specific event, i.e., self-reinforcing methane emissions, until the end of the century. Carter: “Well, it’s here now; it’s here bigtime.” The problem is not a small one as wetlands hold double the amount of carbon as forests. According to David Archer, in one of his carbon climate publications, the climate has never had as much carbon aboard as it has now, and it’s mostly in wetlands.
Euan Nesbit, Emeritus Professor, Earth Sciences, University of London, Honorary Fellow, Darwin College, the world’s leading scientist on methane has sounded the alarm about wetland methane feedback. He put out a paper a couple of weeks ago “that’s nothing short of terrifying.” The paper: Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane’s Record in 2006-2022 and During Glacial Terminations, American Geophysical Union, July 14, 2023.
Moreover, the ultra-dangerous East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which is loaded with methane hydrates, is possibly being compromised, see: Seafloor Methane Tipping Point Reached! Titanic Lifeboat Academy, September 18, 2023.
Methane explosiveness is likely one of the factors behind: “July was the hottest month ever on record.” According to NASA, the Northern Hemisphere was almost 1.7°C. Of course, one month does not make a year, but throughout the planet, for example, all of Europe, temperatures above the dreaded 1.5°C and/or 2.0°C continue to pop up, almost like a permanent trend. It’s unnerving and signaling a very early arrival of inhospitable ecosystems, like what’s already happening in northern Canada and all across the northern reaches of the Northern Hemisphere.
As a result, crazy things happen at both poles. For example, suddenly, Antarctica’s sea ice has become something to worry about after decades of “no worries.” It reached record lows in February 2023, and even worse, when it refreezes, it does so at a slower and slower pace. Carter: “This is a very, very bad, complex, disturbing, disrupting thing that’s happening in Antarctica.” (FYI -There are some well-known Antarctic experts who’ve flat-out said they are scared)
All the while, as the biosphere is experiencing massive intense disturbing, disrupting threats to ecosystems that literally support life, governments are pushing for more and more fossil fuels. According to The Economist, there will be no slowdown in extraction and burning of fossil fuels. According to the IPCC 6th Assessment, because of fossil fuel emissions increasing: “We are looking at temperature increases that are way far-out, totally unprecedented.” (YouTube, 12:40) A scientific paper that came out earlier this year made the point that the temperature rate of increase over the past decade was unprecedented.
Honestly, you only had to turn on the TV news over the past summer to know about unprecedented temperatures and the relationship to human-caused global warming. As such, global warming is slowly going mainstream, causing people to cock their heads to one side as if to question, “what’s going on and is this real news or is it fake news?” Poorly educated people claim it’s fake or totally exaggerated. But is it?
Another disturbing issue is drought conditions throughout the world – NASA’s Grace satellites are the most reliable measurements of drought. And nowhere is drought more responsible for climate chaos than Canada. Canada’s massive fires are driven by global warming; a recent study of Grace data shows the entire north of Canada in severe drought fed by global surface warming. It’s a massive climate catastrophe that simply will not stop and likely one of the worst most disheartening and threatening scenarios of the decade.
Moreover, another major concern detected by Grace satellites: “All of Europe is subject to ground water depletion drought.” In fact, the EU officially made mention of this at the beginning of the year in a public statement. What could possibly be worse? Already, consequences were on display in France and Italy when over 100 towns and villages ran out of ground water during the summer of 2022, governments scrambled to temporarily truck-in bottled water.
Last year (2022) was a record-year of unprecedented mega disasters. And 2023 is similar. All of this is being driven by fossil fuels. The Economist claims oil production/consumption will be higher in 2030 than it is today, as well as increased use of coal, because increased heat waves in China and India require extraordinary measures for air conditioning, requiring more power plant production. They easily turn to coal.
Dr. Carter issued what he refers to as “the worst news ever” … the IMF recently published an assessment of fossil fuel subsidies worldwide of $7,000,000,000,000 in 2022. Meaning governments are subsidizing the destruction of the planet at the rate of $13M per minute. Ten years ago, it was $5 trillion for one year. He believes this is why young people rightfully protest fossil fuels.
Governments must act immediately to stop fossil fuels because the entire climate system is starting to turn inside out. For example, approximately 50% of emissions are absorbed by the carbon sinks of land and ocean. But boreal forests are on fire, emitting carbon, not absorbing carbon. Boreal forests circumnavigate the planet and are absolutely vital for our survival. They are vital to all life. Canada alone has had 5,936 boreal fires to date this year. The burned area is 58,687 square miles, a figure that boggles the mind.
According to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services, boreal forests in regions all over the world have experienced the worst wildfires in recorded history. As a result of the world’s major forests burning, emitting carbon instead of absorbing it, the year-over-year increase in Co2 from July 2022 to July 2023 was a record high increase of 3,29 ppm, 422.14 ppm versus 418.85, a massive increase.
The big question: What can we do? Carter: “We must recognize that we have an enemy, which is fossil fuels.”
We must act now because our greatest asset and one of our last lines of defense for life on the planet, the boreal forest, is burning, emitting CO2 instead of absorbing it. Carter: “This is beyond critical!!!” The boreal forest is the largest forest area of the world, covering one-tenth of the world’s land, wrapped around the entire Northern Hemisphere. It feeds our lungs and stores our carbon. Without it, we fail.
“Extreme wildfires are turning the world’s largest forest ecosystem from carbon sink into net-emitter.” (Source: Alaska Beacon, March 2023) How can this not be anything other than a worldwide emergency?
In summation, Dr. Carter’s update emphasizes six major categories (1) ocean surface temperatures off the charts (2) impending biosphere collapse (3) the methane threat coming unglued, way too early (4) world government policies continue to favor fossil fuels, more than ever (5) severe worldwide drought (6) loss of boreal forests – a key lifeline.
COP28/Dubai, the meeting of the nations of the world on climate change, starts in a few weeks. It’s likely that oil & gas interests will claim carbon removal and sequestration will save our asses. That’s extremely doubtful. (Carbon Capture Has a Long History of Failure, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, September 2022)
According to the US EPA’s description of carbon capture: “It’s technologies that are not economically or technically feasible for widespread use.”
And according to a recent Al Gore speech, Orca (Iceland), the first large-scale carbon dioxide removal plant’s operations are being improved enough so that, in 7 years, each DAC unit will be able to capture 27 seconds worth of annual worldwide emissions. There are 8 units, do the math!
More to the point, according to Dr. Carter: “It is absolute nonsense.”
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Jungfraujoch’s foreboding temperatures this September at the top of the world in Switzerland at 2.25 miles altitude alarmed glaciologists.
If anybody has lingering doubts about global warming’s strength of power to directly impact Earth’s ecosystems, think again. Antarctica, at the bottom of the world, experienced record high temperatures during its winter, as record high temperatures were also recorded at the top of the world in the Swiss Alps, where it’s always icy cold. As it happened, both the top and the bottom of the world hit record high temperatures, simultaneously, give or take a few days. There’s no known record of this ever happening before.
It’s proof positive that global warming is powerfully impacting the entire planet, simultaneously, and it’s happening horrifyingly fast! Too fast to justify petty, phony claims amongst some Americans, with a voice, that global warming’s nothing more than “natural events, the climate always changes, not to worry, blah, blah, blah!” Oh, please, grow up!
But maybe people should be in the streets demonstrating to pull out all the stops to prevent the inevitable, which is self-advertised in full-living descriptive color as both ends of the planet go off course in ballistic fashion within several days of each other. The upshot is global warming (heat) has become Top Dog of the Earth System, pushing aside Goldilocks’ not-too-hot-not-too-cold tenure over the past several thousand years of the Holocene Era. The problem: Goldilocks was a sweetheart. But global warming is a mean-spirited bully, without heart.
Jungfraujoch is the tallest SwissMetNet station in Switzerland at 11,715 feet. Temperatures above 0° Celsius (32°F) for eight straight days in the month of September shocked glaciologists. That had never happened before in its 90-year history of official recordings.
The Jungfraujoch environment, according to its web page: “Icy air sweeps your face, snow crunches underfoot, and the panorama almost takes your breath away: on one side the view of the Swiss Mittelland towards the Vosges, on the other the Aletsch Glacier, lined with four thousand metre peaks. Standing on the Jungfraujoch 3,454 metres above sea level, you can feel it with your first step: this is a different world.”
Glaciologists say this new zero-degree record at extreme altitude is an ominous sign. Of serious concern, Switzerland has ~1,500 ice giants that don’t fancy a lot of heat. Those ice giants have faithfully served as the world’s most trustworthy water towers ever since humans first huddled in caves during the Stone Age a couple million years ago. Now, those wondrous glaciers are at risk of meltdown within only one century after a couple million years of steady work.
Not only did Jungfraujoch register 8-straight days over zero, but at the higher altitude of 5,298 metres Swiss MeteoSwiss reported record temperatures over the zero-degree limit.
“The zero-degree limit is a key meteorological indicator particularly in mountainous regions, as it ‘affects vegetation, the snow line and the water cycle and so has considerable impact on the habitats of humans, animals, and plants alike.” (Source: Climate Records tumble as Switzerland Swelters in Heatwave, Swissinfo.ch, August 22, 2023)
Swiss glaciers have lost one-third of ice volume in only 20 years. The next twenty could be crucial. According to Daniel Farinotti, glaciologist at ETH Zurich: “With a zero-degree isotherm far above 5,000 metres, all glaciers in the Alps are exposed to melt — up to their highest altitudes. Such events are rare and detrimental to the glacier’s health… if such conditions persist in the longer-term, glaciers are set to be lost irreversibly,” Ibid.
“Since the pre-industrial era, the temperature in Switzerland has increased by almost 2° Celsius, well above the global average. At this rate, half of the 1,500 Alpine glaciers – including the majestic Aletsch glacier, a UNESCO heritage site — will disappear in the next 30 years. And if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, all glaciers in Switzerland and Europe risk melting almost completely by the end of the century.” (Source: Why Melting Glaciers Affect Us All, Swissinfo.ch, October 11, 2022)
All of which is a good primer on what to expect if the world average hits 1.5°C and then 2°C, both of which look doable based upon the rapidity of greenhouse gas emissions, for example, CO2 and methane both setting new world records in July 2023.
And it’s also instructive to note, the world is not uniform, e.g., according to Copernicus Climate Change Service: Extreme Heat, Widespread Drought Typify European Climate in 2022, April 20, 2023: “The C35 data show that the average temperature for Europe for the latest 5-year period was around 2.2°C above the pre-industrial era (1850-1900). In 2022 all hell broke out through0ut the EU with water deliveries by truck to 100 thirsty communities in France/Italy and major riverway barges sputtering in mud. It was an “end of the world” type of experience that they muddled through. Of special concern, 75% of Spain’s land risks desertification because of global warming’s severe drought.
Glaciers worldwide are being hit, getting thinner and thinner in the Himalayas and the Andes where hundreds of millions of people depend upon glaciers for hydro power, irrigation, and drinking water. The situation in Europe is horribly problematic as the water flow of major commercial rivers like the Rhône, Rhine, Danube, and Po decrease, especially in summer months because of severe drought that hammered the EU. This has already, at times, seriously impaired commercial barge traffic in Europe, and lo and behold, nuclear power plants are targets of global warming. France’s 56 nuclear reactors were impacted within the past two years. Marine life as well as nuclear reactors depend upon a constant flow of cold water for existence. However, when global warming makes life in an ecosystem nearly impossible, marine life moves, reactors cannot.
A new report on Himalayan glacier loss shows a melt rate 65% faster from 2010 t0 2020 than in the prior decade, 2000-10. That’s big-time acceleration for enormous chunks of ice. That finding adds to “a growing body of evidence that the consequences of climate change are speeding up, and that some changes will be irreversible.” (Source: Snow and Ice in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Are Fast Disappearing, with Grave Implications for People and Nature, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, icimod.org, 2023)
The Hindu Kush Himalaya provides freshwater for 2 billion people. At current melt rates, almost all of the glacial volume will be gone this century.
Peak Water
Researchers say the mountain glacier systems will reach a point by 2050 when the glaciers have shrunk so much that the meltwater starts dwindling. It’s called a turning point “peak water.”
Meanwhile, melting glaciers spur natural disasters of epic proportions, cascading disasters of flooding and huge landslides like sudden shocks to the system, like earthquake events. Furthermore, there is already evidence of loss of biodiversity habitat, especially butterflies have gone extinct in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Frogs and other amphibians are on the short list to go next. Scientists expect a quarter of plants and animals to be “wiped out” over the coming decades with the Indian segment of the Himalayan mountains hit extremely hard. (Source: Sunita Chaudhary, ecosystems researcher, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development).
As previously mentioned, Antarctica has joined the “it’s never happened before” party. The ice continent, as large as the U.S. and Mexico combined, is thecoldest continent on Earth with a mean annual interior temperature of -71F. However, in the dead of winter, the Antarctic Peninsula, an 800-mile extension of the Antarctic continent, temperatures hit 32°F (Source: It’s Even Hot in Antarctica, Where it’s Winter, Vox, July 13, 2023). Which happened shortly before zero C at Jungfraujoch, as the top of the world and the bottom of the world coincided in extreme once-in-a-lifetime events, which researchers believe may become a trend, thereby losing the once-in-a-lifetime status, with the ramifications best not discussed herein. They’re too extensive and exhausting!
By now, it has become obvious that Earth’s climate system is askew, out of balance, and rapidly changing the face of the planet. Some knowledgeable people believe the best course of action is to learn to adapt to this rapidly changing environment because it does not appear that fossil fuel emissions are going anywhere but up, up, up, like they have for decades, higher every year, but for various legit reasons, do not count on CO2 capture/sequestration (CCS) or direct air capture (DAC) to bail us out of a worldwide heat jam, in part, because the scale is way beyond humongous, meaning the problem is as big as the planet is large, and that’s really, really big. Meanwhile, emissions continue to feed into more destructive global warming events, testing the mettle of humans, as fossil fuel emissions (the heart and soul of global warming) increasingly choke a planet that’s already sputtering.
COP28
All of which is supposed to be discussed amongst the nations of the world at the upcoming COP28 (UN Climate Change Conference) to be held in Dubai, November 30 – December 12, 2023, but there are serious reservations about the venue and the host and the participants as expressed in a letter sent by Freedom Forward and signed by 200 organizations: 200+ Organizations Call on Governments to Address UAE Human Rights Abuses Ahead of COP28 Climate Negotiations with the subtitle: Letter to COP28 participating Governments Regarding United Arab Emirates (UAE) Human Rights Violations and Climate Concerns, September 13, 2023.
The opening paragraph: “We write as a global network of organizations with grave human rights concerns regarding the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) host of the 2023 Cop28 to be held by the rulers of a repressive petrostate, and overseen by an oil executive, is reckless, represents a blatant conflict of interest, and threatens the legitimacy of the whole process.”
Meanwhile, the history of UN meetings to fix the planet is not encouraging: For example, in 2015, 193 countries agreed to UN Sustainable Development Goals, aka: Global Goals. As of August 2023, after 8 years of dalliance, not one of the goals looks set to be achieved. (Nature, 9/12/2023).
As a result of the failure of sustainable development goals and for that matter, any and all such goals, a new research report indicates that Earth’s life support systems have been so damaged that the planet is “well outside the safe operating space for humanity.” To come back to a safe space, two key actions are required: (1) stop fossil fuel burning (2) end destructive farming. (Source: Earth Beyond Six of Nine Planetary Boundaries, Science Advances, Sept. 13, 2023)
Alas, like the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Paris ’15 climate goals to achieve net zero have mostly bombed.
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Japan cannot possibly outlive the atrocity of dumping radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean. In fact, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is an example of how nuclear meltdowns negatively impact the entire world, as its toxic wastewater travels across the world in ocean currents. The dumping of stored toxic wastewater from the meltdown in 2011 officially started on August 24th, 2023. Meanwhile, the country restarts some of the nuclear plants that were shut down when the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant exploded.
Fukushima’s broken reactors are an example of why nuclear energy is a trap that can’t handle global warming or extreme natural disasters. Nuclear is an accident waiting to happen, for several reasons, including victimization by forces of global warming.
According to Dr. Paul Dorfman, chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group, former secretary to the UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Internal Radiation, and Visiting Fellow, University of Sussex: “It’s important to understand that nuclear is very likely to be a significant climate casualty. For cooling purposes nuclear reactors need to be situated by large bodies of water, etc. …” Essentially, global warming is nuclear energy’s Waterloo; it has already seriously endangered France’s 56 nuclear reactors with partial shutdowns because of extreme global warming. Nuclear reactors cannot survive global warming. See “the nuclear energy trap” link at the end of this article.
TEPCO’s treacherous act of dumping radioactive water into a wide-open ocean is a deliberate violation of human decency, as it clearly violates essential provisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) General Safety Guide No. 8 (GSG-8).
Japan should be forced to stop its diabolical exercise of potentially destroying precious life. Shame on the IAEA and shame on the member countries of the G7 for endorsing this travesty. They’ve christened the ocean an “open sewer.” Hark! Come one, come all, dump your trash, open toxic spigots, bring chemicals, bring fertilizers, bring plastic, bring radioactive waste that’s impossible to dispose… the oceans are open sewers. It’s free! Yes, it’s free but only weak-minded people would allow a broken-down crippled nuclear power plant to dump radioactive waste into the world’s ocean. It is a testament to human frailty, weakness, insipience, not courage.
According to Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D. Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, TEPCO’s ALPS-treated Radioactive Water Dumping Plan Violates Essential Provisions of IAEA’s General Safety Guide No. 8 (GSG-8) and Corresponding Requirements in Other IAEA Documents, June 28, 2023: “The IAEA is an important United Nations institution. Like the rest of the Expert Panel, the author of this paper has been reluctant to criticize the IAEA. Yet, its outright refusal to apply its own guidance documents in full measure is stark. Its constricted view of the dumping plan has allowed it to evade its responsibilities to many countries. Its eagerness to assure the public that harm will be “negligible” has been carried to the point of grossly overstating well-known facts about tritium. The serious lapses of the IAEA in the Fukushima radioactive water matter have made criticism unavoidable.”
“Greenpeace rejects Japan’s claim that all nuclear isotopes except tritium have been removed from the wastewater. It claims that at least one other radioactive isotope, Carbon-14, remains, and that many more, including Strontium 90 and Cesium 137, remain as yet untreated in most of the storage tanks.” (Source: Richard Broinowski, More Fallout from Fukushima, Pearls and Irritations, July 8, 2023)
Japan is signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea: “Japan’s policy to release wastewater into the Pacific Ocean constitutes a violation of Japan’s obligations under UNCLOS Article 192, which requires state parties to ‘protect and preserve the marine environment.’ Additionally, Japan’s pollution of the marine environment from land-based sources violates UNCLOS Article 207.” (Source: Victoria Cruz-De Jesus, Preserving the Sea in a Radioactive World: How Japan’s Plan to Release Treated Nuclear Wastewater into the Pacific Ocean Violates UNCLOS, American University International Law Review, Vol. 27, Issue 4, 2023)
Adding insult to injury, Japan considered several available waste disposal measures that, in part, would have complied with portions of its treaty obligations under UNCLOS Article 192 and Article 207 but ultimately settled for the cheapest, easiest, most convenient, yet most harmful, policy, dumping it into the Pacific Ocean, which conveniently is “right next door.” Japan could have chosen (1) geosphere injection or (2) underground burial as options that lessen the risks of nuclear waste released into the environment, or they could build more storage tanks. But both #1 and #2 options are considerably more expensive.
As a result, Japan’s outrageous disregard for nature has only served to highlight the insanity surrounding nuclear energy: “The Japanese Government and TEPCO falsely claim that discharge is the only viable option necessary for eventual decommissioning. Nuclear power generation, which experiences shutdowns due to accidents and natural disasters, and perpetually requires thermal power as a backup, cannot serve as a solution to global warming.” (Source: Japan Announces Date for Fukushima Radioactive Water Release, Greenpeace International Press Release, August 22, 2023)
According to Greenpeace, which has strong expertise in nuclear energy: “As of 8 June 2023, there were 1,335,381 cubic meters of radioactive wastewater stored in tanks, but due to the failure of the ALPS (Advanced Liquid Processing System) processing technology, approximately 70% of this water will have to be processed again. Scientists have warned that the radiological risks from the discharges have not been fully assessed, and the biological impacts of tritium, carbon-14, strontium-90 and iodine-129, which will be released in the discharges, have been ignored,” Ibid.
It seems inconceivable, but true, at a time when the world’s oceans are confronted with immense stress (1) inordinate record-setting heat (2) illegal overfishing to the point of near exhaustion of major fishing stock (3) human trash accumulating in vast swirls of rotting garbage, e.g., the Great Pacific Garbage Patch three times the size of France; plus four more major garbage patches in the oceans (4) rampant levels of agricultural pesticides and fertilizers, (5) tons of plastic and (6) industrial discharges. In the face of so much stress, Japan has the nerve to add toxic radioactive muck from a crippled nuclear power plant. Oh, please!
“For years, we have looked at the ocean as a dumping ground. Because it was out of sight and out of mind, we have treated it like a universal sewer.” (Jean Michel Cousteau, St. Petersburg Times) Cousteau has spent a lifetime fighting to expose ocean abuse, saying it needs to stop “if marine life, and therefore everything on the planet, is going to survive.” Alas, Japan is violating everything Cousteau ever stood for.
As a result of indiscretions, will Japan essentially self-destruct its economy as boycotts of products follow in the footsteps of its blatant disregard for the health of the ocean?
China has banned all seafood from Japan, calling the release a “selfish and irresponsible act.” Chinese social media registered 800,000,000 views on Weibo, filled with anger. China is Japan’s largest buyer of seafood accounting for one-half of Japan’s seafood exports.
Major Japanese cosmetics manufacturers have seen sales drop along with public share prices as Chinese internet users began compiling lists of Japanese brands to boycott, attracting 300,000,000 views on Weibo. The boycott could be a “trigger for Chinese consumers to switch away from Japanese premium cosmetics brands,” said Wakako Sato, an analyst for Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. (Source: Controversial Fukushima Nuclear Waste Plan Spurs Chinese Boycott of Japanese Cosmetics, Time, June 22, 2023)
On Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, users have circulated lists of Japanese brands ranging from cosmetics to food and beverages. urging people not to buy those products.
South Korea and Hong Kong are banning Japanese seafood from Fukushima and nine other prefectures. North Korea’s Foreign Ministry called the release a “crime against humanity,” which Japan can only view as the most humiliating insult of all time.
Is Japan setting a dangerous precedent? According to the New York Times, d/d August 22, 2023: “If Japan dumps its tainted Fukushima water in the ocean, what’s to stop other countries from doing the same?” Indeed, this may be one of the most deadly consequences of TEPCO’s dumping, with G7 approval.
“We’ve seen an inadequate radiological, ecological impact assessment that makes us very concerned that Japan would not only be unable to detect what’s getting into the water, sediment and organisms, but if it does, there is no recourse to remove it… there’s no way to get the genie back in the bottle,” marine biologist Robert Richmond, a professor with the University of Hawaii, told the BBC’s Newsday programme.” (Source: Fukushima: What are the Concerns Over Waste Water Release? BBC News, August 25, 2023)
TEPCO admits to some level of radiation when it releases water from storage tanks. According to a CNN news article, Japan claims other countries are also guilty of releasing tritium-laced water into the ocean. So, why can’t they also do it? However, this misses the point that nobody should be allowed to release radioactive water into the oceans. Furthermore, TEPCO’s concentrations, with 60 highly toxic radioactive isotopes, hopefully treated by ALPS (Advanced Liquid Processing System) processing technology, makes other dumpers look like pipsqueaks. Even worse yet, Greenpeace/Japan, and others, have strong reservations about the effectiveness of ALPS, and consider: Who’s measuring?
The U.S. National Association of Marine Laboratories, with over 100 member laboratories, issued a position paper strongly opposing the toxic dumping because of a lack of adequate and accurate scientific data in support of Japan’s assertions of safety.
And regardless of Japan’s attempts to downplay the dumping as inconsequential, it has been scientifically established that even very low doses of radioactivity bio-accumulate in the human body, as well as in marine life, over time leading to physical deterioration because of DNA damage.
“At high doses, ionizing radiation can cause immediate damage to a person’s body, including, at very high doses, radiation sickness and death. At lower doses, ionizing radiation can cause health effects such as cardiovascular disease and cataracts, as well as cancer. It causes cancer primarily because it damages DNA, which can lead to cancer-causing gene mutations.” (Source: National Cancer Institute)
How is it possible to justify dumping any amount of radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean? Is the world’s consciousness so low, so lacking a moral compass, that it’s okay to dump the most toxic material on the planet into the oceans?
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The Council for the Human Future, which is a dedicated group of intelligent well-informed people, has identified ten Mega Risks to Earth. As it happens, all ten risks are threatening the planet all at the same time. Consequently, the board of the Council has called for an Earth System Treaty. This may be one of the most unique efforts to organize the world community under a banner of identification of serious mega risks to the planet’s life-support system.
“Humanity created its current dire trajectory. It is now time to change course with a binding global treaty designed to empower individuals, institutions, and policymakers, and through this shared effort, reduce the existential threats to civilization. The Earth Systems Treaty is potentially a major step forward, a step towards a healthy future for all.” (Paul R. Ehrlich, Emeritus Professor, Stanford University)
Two issues are key to the way forward: (1) focusing on the Mega Risks to take coordinated constructive measures, or (2) ignore Mega Risks as if they’re harmless science fiction, a fantasy world not to be concerned about; it’ll go away. There are no other options. Now is the time when people must decide which option to take. The Earth System has never been more vulnerable. For the first time, the direct impact of global warming and vulnerability of degraded ecosystems have become nightly TV news, almost every night!
Studies have shown that climate change puts most people into one of two camps: (1) believing in the science or (2) casting it off as essentially science fiction, ignoring the issue. But beware grasshopper, reality often follows in the footsteps of science fiction. In that regard, this article will take a step forward, or maybe a step backwards, depending upon perspective, into the world of the Twilight Zone, created by Rod Sterling in the 1960s for an interesting retrospective on science fiction foretelling the future.
The Twilight Zone (1959-1964) was an American science fiction TV series about people experiencing strange problems, for example: The Midnight Sun, Episode 75, November 1961: “At twenty minutes to midnight, it is 110 °F (43 °C) and sunny as high noon. Norma and Mrs. Bronson try to support each other as they watch life as they know it erode around them. The streets are deserted, water usage is limited to an hour a day, and their electricity is gradually being turned off. Food and water are scarce, and the sea has dried up. A radio presenter announces that the police have been moved out of the city and that citizens must defend themselves against looters, then angrily goes off script before being forcibly taken off the air.”
Science fiction has a way of becoming reality. For example, some say that “Space Station V” of 2001: A Space Odyssey was inspiration for the International Space Station (ISS).
And 40 years before the introduction of the iPad, Dr. David Bowman and Dr. Frank Poole crew members of Discovery One in 2001: A Space Odyssey held “newspads” in their hands that Samsung would later claim as the original tablet featured in the film 40 years before arrival of the first iPad in 2010. Eventually, Samsung lost its claim in a lawsuit against Apple.
In the 1990 film Total Recall, Douglas Quaid (played by Arnold Schwarzenegger) jumps into a driverless car to escape pursuit by bad guys. The car is driven by an onboard satellite navigation system, which is at the forefront of driverless vehicles today.
And most amazing of all, Star Trek’s “beam me up, Scotty” via dematerialism and conversion back to rematerialization is now a reality but not with humans. Quantum entanglement allows for teleporting balls of energy known as photons with two entangled particles far away from each other remaining connected with actions performed by one affecting the other. This happens faster than the speed of light. It’s true! Einstein referred to quantum entanglement as “spooky action at a distance.”
Today’s Earth System Mega Risks are real even though seemingly science fiction because of the near impossibility of mentally accepting the most-difficult-of-all-consequences, i.e., loss of inhabitable land because of a rapidly changing climate system. Indeed, who can accept the reality of a deadening planet right under their feet, for example, massive drought caused by global warming has put 75% of Spain’s surface area at risk of desertification. As such, the devastation of mega risks requires a universal treaty to confront reality and to do something positive.
This article is an abbreviated version of the Mega Risks, as identified by the Council. The full list resembles science fiction simply because it does not seem real to people. Nobody wants to believe the worst can happen. But truth is stranger than fiction. The threats posed by mega risks are real and active and advanced, e.g., major commercial waterways throughout the world like the Rhine and Danube and Loir have been threatened because of severe drought, which is far-reaching, for example, the Panama Canal was forced to reduce shipping traffic (August 2023) because or severe drought conditions and experienced huge traffic jams with dozens of ships backed up at both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. World drought hits world shipping!
Of additional ‘remarkable’ interest, one of the items found in the list of Mega Risks is Mass Delusion. After all, it’s a hollow world without regard for reality: “The inability of people to understand the deadly threats that now confront us all is the greatest barrier to global action for a safe human future. Disinformation, lies, and false beliefs pose an existential risk to our survival.” (Source: The Mega Risks by The Council for the Human Future, Prof. John Hewson – Chair, Prof. Bob Douglas, Prof. Robyn Alders, Julian Cribb)
In large measure, Mega Risks revolve around the human footprint, which has grown so large that it now consumes 1.75 earths. Yes, humans are using the equivalent resources of more than one planet to survive. The human ecological footprint crossed the line into biocapacity deficit way back in the late 1970s. The planet no longer regenerates fast enough to carry the necessary ecological assets to support human life because of unsustainable excessive demand plus ecosystem abuse, misuse, and degradation. In other words, the planet is running on reserves built up over millennia and will one day be running on fumes… to be followed by the threat of mass extinction. It’s indisputable that Earth’s resources are finite especially as biocapacity regeneration is overwhelmed by human demand in concert with reckless misuse and disregard for ecosystems.
For example, the oceans are a dumping ground for plastics and chemicals and toxic radioactivity and have been nearly drained of life: According to the Marine Stewardship Council, depletion of fish stocks is the most urgent threat to the world’s oceans. Ninety-three percent (93%) of the world’s major marine fish stocks are classified as fully exploited, overexploited, or significantly depleted. “Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing is a pervasive, far-reaching security threat.” (Source: Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing, United States Coast Guard, 2022)
It’s obvious that sustainable fishing plus putting a stop to using the ocean as an open sewer, especially dumping radioactive toxicity (Japan’s Fukushima*), as well as ecological sustainable farming, as well as sustainable use of all natural resources is the only way forward, but it does not have strong enough sponsorship, in fact, quite the opposite! There is no sponsorship that’s powerful enough to make a positive impact that’s meaningful for nature and its ecosystems, not enough to save the planet from proactive mega risks. There are many NGOs that support nature, like the Sierra Club or Greenpeace, nevertheless, widespread collapsing ecosystems still tell a sorrowful tale.
*Why should anybody anywhere in the world be permitted to discharge large quantities of contaminated toxic water that’s been filtered for ‘most radioactive particles’ directly from a broken-down nuclear power plant into the ocean under any circumstances?
It’s never been more important to address the issue of global warming, especially in consideration of the repercussions, for example, Electricite de France SA threatened (August 21st) to reduce nuclear output (70% French electricity) as a heat wave affecting a large part of the country warmed rivers used for cooling its reactors. Ergo, connecting the dots: too much heat diminishes nuclear power capability which threatens home and business air conditioning needed to escape the same heat that cripples the nuclear power plants, a vicious circle. Global warming is nuclear power’s nemesis (beware of the nuclear energy trap).
The Council for the Human Future is aware of the risks and intends to create enough awareness in the world to help maintain a functioning Earth System. The Council does not pretend to have all the answers but does know it is important to create an awareness and a vehicle to expand knowledge of what can be done. As things stand, there is no formal worldwide organization other than The Council for the Human Future exclusively dedicated to itemizing the full panoply of mega risks to the planet with a mission of organizing humanity under one umbrella to do something constructive.
Yes, at first blush, it seems pretentious that a handful of people can save the planet, but as Margaret Mead famously said: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
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Across America, whispers softly speak about whether there’s an undeclared civil war. Well, maybe yes, maybe no, but what are the signals? What about January 6th hand-to-hand combat on the steps of the nation’s capitol with 136 (injured) police officers, was it civil unrest or incipient civil war?
Those questions are answered by Barbara F. Walter, Professor of Political Science/University of California/San Diego, who works with a CIA task force and recently gave a TED talk: Is the US Headed Towards Another Civil War?
As explained in Dr. Walter’s speech, civil wars are surprisingly common throughout the world. Since 1946, there have been 250 civil wars. But America hasn’t had one in over 150 years. When it did, 1861-65, it was brutal with 620,000 dead which is equivalent to the total fatalities of the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the Mexican War, the Spanish-American War, WWI, WWII, and the Korean War combined.
Unexpectedly, civil wars happen out of the blue catching people at work, on vacation, or shopping at the local mall totally by surprise. Barbara Walter, an analyst of civil wars for over 30 years, interviewed a family that experienced the Bosnian civil war of 1992: Berina Kovac, a mother living in Sarajevo: “In the months and weeks leading up to the civil war, life seemed normal; She went to work. She took weekend holidays with her husband. They went to the weddings of their friends. But then one night in March of 1992, when she was home with her newborn son, the lights suddenly went out. And then, she said, you started to hear machine guns.”
Dr. Walter has interviewed members of Hamas on the West Bank, ex-Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, FARC in Columbia, observed from the Golan Heights Syria’s civil war, driven the streets of Zimbabwe during the military coup against Robert Mugabe and been interrogated by Myanmar’s junta. In 2017, the CIA asked Barbara Walter to serve on The Political Instability Task Force with a goal of creating a model for what ingredients foretell of ethnic conflict and civil wars. Fascinatingly, predicting civil wars is very possible. Solid data exists as to when and where conflicts will break out. You’ve just got to know where to find it.
There are 38 different factors that lead to civil war. Some are obvious like income inequality. But only two factors are highly predictive of an upcoming civil war:
Whether a country is an anocracy is the first and most predictive factor. An anocracy is “partial democracy,” meaning a government that is neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic. It’s something in-between, e.g., Hungary today, where they hold democratic elections, but whoever wins can do whatever they want to do; that’s an anocracy.
Whether citizens in these anocracies form political parties around identity rather than around ideology is the second key factor. In other words, instead of joining a party because you are liberal or conservative, a capitalist or communist, i.e., an ideology, you join because you are black or white, Christian or Muslim, Serb or Croat, or worship a personality, i.e., an identity.
If countries have those two features, The Task Force categorizes those countries as high risk of political violence and candidates for civil war and inclusion on The Watchlist, a formal document that is sent to the White House.
During The Task Force meetings that Dr. Walker attended, they discussed countries of the world, but never the US because the CIA is not legally allowed to monitor the US or its citizens. Therefore, it can never be put onto The Watch List.
Nevertheless, as a private citizen not representing The Task Force, she clearly sees the danger factors, flashing brightly, emerging at a surprisingly fast clip right here in the United States of America. It’s getting dangerous, fast.
For starters, US democracy has been downgraded three times in the past six years: (1) in 2016 because international election monitors considered the 2016 election free but not fair because of Russian meddling (2) in 2019 because the White House refused (anocracy) to comply with Congress requests for information (3) 2020 when Trump refused to accept his loss and actively attempted to overturn the results. Thus, the US qualified for The Watch List as an anocracy before the occurrence of January 6th but not listed and sent to the White House, as heretofore explained.
Moreover, it is also known who starts civil wars. It is not the poorest people or the most oppressed by government. The initiators of civil wars are groups that were politically dominant but in decline. Hmm.
For example, Iraq’s Sunnis held key positions under Saddam Hussein. When the US toppled Saddam, they also threw Sunnis out of positions. Thereafter, Sunnis started the civil war. This has happened with established political parties in Yugoslavia and elsewhere around the world as former dominant political parties’ revolt to the point of full-fledged civil war.
Whereas, in the US, militias have arisen primarily of white men that feel threatened by the changing identity of the country by “others” with dark complexions. A perfect setup for identity politics. These white men predominated the march on the capitol on January 6th. Demographic change is the determining force for them as the country is rapidly changing to a majority of non-whites, like what’s occurring in Europe.
Along parallel lines, as a significant catalyst, if climate change continues to cause citizens from the global South to migrate north, all the English-speaking white-majority countries will continue to experience the same dynamics. According to Barbara Walter, how the US handles this dynamic is closely watched by its allies in the world.
Going forward, Americans can (1) allow this dynamic to tear the country apart or (2) they can use it to come together to fight back by creating a truly multiethnic, multi-religious democracy. How can this be done?
It’s imperative to address the two big risk factors that lead to civil war, i.e., anocracy and identity politics. In that regard, the rule of law is fundamental to addressing the issue. It must be firmly established and firmly executed as a check on anocracy. And assure equal access to every citizen’s right to vote and improve the quality of government services.
Business interests can play a crucial pivotal role. Past instances of inchoate civil war have been short-circuited by business interests coming into play to fight anocracy. Thirty years ago, it looked like South Africa was headed for civil war as Black South Africans protested White apartheid. The business community stepped into the fray and demanded real democracy because years of economic sanctions pressured their bottom lines. They chose profits over apartheid which brought immediate reform in South Africa.
The business community can also help solve identity politics by investing in communities that have been left behind via globalization and trade agreements like NAFTA. And they can invest in better health care and higher minimum wages. Thus, recreating a working class middle-class that has hope for the future and not left defenselessly openly vulnerable to demagogic threats to tear down the establishment that caused their plight. In other words, the establishment needs to rescue the middle class instead of rejecting it with stupid thoughtless shallow policy decisions, e.g., shipping good-paying jobs to the lowest common denominator of wages elsewhere in the world. In other words, cancel neoliberalism’s globalization destructive forces.
Additionally, there’s a short-term fix that is easily overlooked but crucial for early success in combating civil war. It is necessary to regulate social media but not interfere with free speech. Which is an extremely delicate subject, but the focus is algorithms that broadcast incendiary, divisive information. Algorithm data makes non-human, often anti-humanity, decisions about what users want to see on a platform. “Hu, the Harvard researcher, argues that for many systems, the question of building a ‘fair’ system is essentially nonsensical, because those systems try to answer social questions that don’t necessarily have an objective answer.” (Source: Rebecca Heilweil, Why Algorithms Can Be Racist and Sexist, Vox, Feb. 18, 2020)
In an August 2019 internal memo leaked in 2021, Facebook admitted that “the mechanics of our platforms are not neutral”, concluding that in order to reach maximum profits, optimization for engagement is necessary. In order to increase engagement, algorithms have found that hate, misinformation, and politics are instrumental for app activity. As referenced in the memo, “The more incendiary the material, the more it keeps users engaged, the more it is boosted by the algorithm.” (Sources: TikTok is Prompting Users to Follow Far-Right Extremist Accounts, MediaMatters for America, March 26, 2021 -and- Study: False News Spreads Faster Than the Truth, MIT, March 8, 2018)
YouTube has been identified as spreading radicalized content. Al-Qaeda and similar extremist groups have been linked for recruitment videos and engaging with international media outlets. (Source: Murthy, Dhiraj. Evaluating Platform Accountability Terrorist Content on You Tube, American Behavioral Scientist, May 1, 2021)
“The U.S. department of Justice defines ‘Lone-wolf’ (self) terrorism as “someone who acts alone in a terrorist attack without the help or encouragement of a government or a terrorist organization”. Through social media outlets on the internet, ‘Lone-wolf’ terrorism has been on the rise, being linked to algorithmic radicalization. (Source: Lone Wolf Terrorism in America, Office of Justice Programs. November 2, 2022)
For clarification, according to Walter: People can put whatever they want onto social media, known as free speech, but it is crucial to inhibit algorithms that amplify hate speech across the country. This has been a key driver in America’s unwelcomed skirmish with a clear and dangerous threat of full-throttled civil war.
On a legal basis, algorithms are free to continue generating clicks like crazy which builds revenues for social media companies. Section 230 has its backside covered.
Section 230 Protective Shield
The Communications Decency Act of 1996, Section 230 states: “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” Therein protecting media from liabilities or being sued because of third-party content and reducing a company’s incentive to remove harmful content or misinformation, allowing social media companies to maximize profits through pushing radical content without legal risks.
“The Supreme Court has passed up a closely watched opportunity to clarify the scope of the federal liability shield known as Section 230 that protects internet companies from most legal claims over content posted by users… In a pair of rulings Thursday morning, the justices rejected lawsuits seeking to hold tech giants like Google and Twitter liable for terrorism-promoting content on their platforms. And the court nixed the suits without issuing any sweeping pronouncements on the immunity provision that has come under increasing fire from Republicans and Democrats.” (Source: Twitter, Google Win Big at Supreme Court, Politico, May 18, 2023)
As recently as November of 2022, the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security stated: “Social media platforms have played an increasing role in the spread of extremist content that translates into real world violence, due in part to business models that incentivize user engagement over safety.”
The social networking megaphone (Internet) may be the single most provocative, yet most protected, contributor to full-throttle civil war even as social media companies claim efforts to filter as much as possible… with algorithms?
“In this report, we set out to lift the curtain and show how algorithms work in practice. We developed and tested algorithmic models in the areas of offensive speech detection and predictive policing. We quickly found that automated hate speech detection is unreliable.” (Source: Bias in Algorithms: Artificial Intelligence and Discrimination, European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights, 2022.)
According to Dr. Walter, every interviewee informed her: “They did not see it coming.” Nobody advertises the onset of civil war, no blaring sirens or blasting horns or ringing bells. It just happens.
Meanwhile, many people feel ill at ease, anxious, sensing something that they cannot put their finger on, things are not quite right, a national angst reflected by mass human behavior. According to an American Psychological Association poll, nearly 40% of Americans have considered moving to another country because of the political environment and 70% are stressed-out because of violence, mass shootings, and gun violence. The national psyche is weak and vulnerable at the same time as signs of anocracy and identity politics grow stronger.
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Al Gore, former US VP, recently held a TED talk in anticipation of COP28, the upcoming Conference of the Parties, aka: UNFCCC or 2023 United Nations Climate Conference, November 30th – December 12th, 2023, to be held at Expo City, Dubai. It increasingly looks to be a freakish show of multi-dimensional illusions and fakery that the world of climate science is falling for. After all, a crowd of 80,000 is expected to gather to resolve the climate crisis hosted by an active climate crisis participant named Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
It should be noted that COPs have been annual events since 1995 when CO2 emissions were 21 Gt, which is 21 billion metric tons (for perspective purposes, according to NASA, one gigaton equals 10,000 fully loaded US aircraft carriers). The scorecard since then is not at all impressive. Global CO2 emissions have gone up every year without fail following every COP for nearly three decades, currently at 36 Gt. That’s up 70% since COPs started. This is getting to be tiresome. In other words, COPs somehow mysteriously serve to accelerate carbon emissions. Maybe stop COP. After all, these are very expensive affaires that increasingly serve as photo ops for prime ministers and presidents, kinda like the Red Carpet for the Oscars.
Al Gore’s TED speech d/d August 2023: What the Fossil Fuel Industry Doesn’t Want You to Know. FYI- Al gets very heated when discussing the oil industry. FYI2- Al delivers an upbeat ending to his TED speech by explaining how society can get out of the global heat jam, and he highlights good things that are already happening. Good news is found in the final minutes of his 25:44 talk and in his opening remarks.
Before commencing on a tirade about the insanity of holding climate change talks in one of the world’s oil kingdoms with prospects that oil sheiks are going to pull the wool over everybody’s eyes, a synopsis of Al Gore’s encouraging words:
At one point when discussing mitigation efforts, he says: “So, will we succeed?”
Al’s answer: “Amazingly good news… What if we could stop the increase in temperatures?”
Response to his own query: “Yes, we can.”
Accordingly: “If we get to true net zero, astonishingly, global temperatures will stop going up with a lag time of as little as three to five years. They used to think that positive feedback loops would keep that process going. No, it will not! The temperatures will stop going up. The ice will continue melting and some other things will continue, but we can stop the increase of temperatures. Even better, if we stay at true net zero in as little as 30 years, half of all the human caused CO2 will come out of the atmosphere into the upper ocean and the trees and vegetation.” (footnote: Success depends upon several “ifs”.)
Therefore, according to former VP Gore: People should “not be vulnerable to despair” because humans have “a will to act.” Moreover, “the will to act is itself a renewable resource.” Accordingly, as further stated: We have everything we need and proven deployment models to reduce emissions 50% by 2030. It will require (1) more solar and wind (2) more regenerative agriculture (3) more EVs (4) more charging stations (5) more energy storage (6) more green hydrogen (7) and more electrolyzers to produce it.
Renewables already account for 90% of all new electricity generation installed each year, worldwide. In fact, renewable energy ascends nearly vertical on a graph. For example, just seven years ago, there was one Gigafactory. There are now 195 Gigafactories and another 300 in the pipeline. Gigafactories produce batteries for electric vehicles. Indeed, it is true, renewables are a growth industry. Just ask Wall Street, which handsomely profits.
But, according to the International Energy Agency, in the face of all that good news, the rapid growth rate mentioned by Al Gore is lagging the timeline needed to hit net zero emissions by 2050: “To achieve this, annual renewable energy use must increase at an average rate of about 13% during 2023-2030, twice as much as the average over the past 5 years.” (Source: Renewables, International Energy Agency, IEA, July 11, 2023)
Not only is the current scale of renewables off center, too slow, but COP28 is likely to deceive the public about the intentions of the oil industry, which puts a very big question mark on all assumptions of net zero achievement. However, before VP Gore castigates oil magnates, he heaps praise on America’s (Biden’s) Inflation Reduction Act, which he calculates will directly and indirectly be worth up to $1.2 trillion in renewable benefits, and both Australia and Brazil have turned very pro-renewable with more aggressive installations directed at net zero emissions. As noted by Gore, there is plenty of good news, e.g., China reaching its goals ahead of schedule, but here’s the catch: “In spite of this progress, the emissions are still going up and the crisis is still getting worse faster than we are deploying the solutions.” (this is the most direct, honest assessment by VP Gore in his TED speech).
For over 50 years fossil fuels have consistently been >80% of world energy supply. “Global energy demand rose 1% last year and record renewables growth did nothing to shift the dominance of fossil fuels, which still accounted for 82% of supply, according to the industry’s Statistical Review of World Energy.” (Source: Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance in 2022, Report Says, Reuters, June 26, 2023)
To solve the persistent problem of excessive fossil fuel emissions, Gore suggests looking at the obstacles, which includes unrelenting opposition by the fossil fuel industry. Even though many people think they are onside and trying to help, he begs to differ: “Let me tell you … on every piece of legislation at every level of government, they’re in there with their lobbyists and revolving door colleagues doing everything possible to slow down progress. They have used fraud on a massive scale; they’ve used falsehoods on an industrial scale, and they’ve used their legacy political and economic networks… to capture the policy-making process.” (Al Gore)
Gore also mentions a direct hard-hitting statement by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres: “The fossil fuel industry is the polluted heart of the climate crisis.”
As stated by Gore, for decades the fossil fuel companies have had the damning evidence of poisonous fossil fuels yet decided to lie to the public to make more money. “It’s as simple as that.” And now they have seized control of the COP process, especially this year’s COP in Dubai. Concern has been building about this for quite some time. Last year in Egypt, the fossil fuel interests had more delegates at COP than the combined delegations of the 10 most affected climate-impacted countries. Which can only be categorized as an upside-down climate conference.
Making matters even more exasperating, this year’s host (Dubai) has appointed the president of COP28 despite blatant conflict of interest. It’s the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (DNOC) Dr. Sultan Al Jaber. For reference purposes, DNOC’s emissions are larger than ExxonMobil. How is it possible for climate scientists to attend an event to halt CO2 that’s hosted by the CEO of one of the world’s largest emitters of CO2?
According to former VP Gore: Dhabi National Oil Company “has no credible plan whatsoever to reduce emissions.” In fact, they plan to increase their emissions via increased fossil fuel production by as much as 50% by 2030. This matches the time frame when the world is attempting to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030. It’s a massive clash of interests, as climate scientists from around the world attend COP28 in the backyard of massive CO2 emissions and plans to increase production by 50%.
Paradoxically, Dr. Jaber oversees both. Yes, he’s in charge of reducing emissions as well as increasing emissions. Al Gore’s response to that peculiar setup: “Wait a minute, do you take us as a bunch of fools?” In fact, the fossil fuel industry has captured the COP process and is intentionally slowing it down, period! Gore: “We need to do something about it.”
Last year at COP, the petrostates vetoed any references to a “fossil-fuel phase-down” in COP resolutions. Since that’s reality, then why hold COP in the first instance? Climate scientists shouldn’t be used as pawns to promote oil industry trickery.
Al Gore: “The climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis.” There’s no other way to look at it.
The newest scam by the fossil fuel industry is a storyline that fossil fuels are not the problem; it’s the emissions that are the problem. Umm- Duh! They recommend capturing the emissions and everything will be hunky dory. For example, Abu Dhabi claims they reduced emissions from oil and gas production from 2005-2014 by 99.2% even as they produced more of both. Climate Trade (which launched the first Carbon API in the world) measures these things: Here’s the truth, “By 2030, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s grand plan for Carbon Capture and Sequestration will capture only 1.4% of current emissions.” (TED talk @ 11:46)
Gore’s outburst regarding Abu Dhabi National Oil’s sleight of hand: “Do they think we don’t see what they’re doing… don’t understand what they’re doing?”
Moreover, here in the US, the EPA gave US utilities a regulatory mandate to either stop burning coal or capture the emissions. But capture’s not that simple: According to the EPA’s own description of carbon capture: “It’s technologies that are not economically or technically feasible for widespread use.”
The technology for CCS has been around for 50 years, but the cost has never declined. Whereas, usually as technologies develop and improve over time, costs per unit decrease. According to a study by Oxford University, CCS is what’s classified as a “non-improving technology.” It’s not readily available for “cost-effective practical use.” And now petrostates talk about direct air capture, which, by the way, uses huge amounts of energy. Energy companies claim DAC gives them an excuse to never stop producing oil. More to the point, they’ll never stop producing as long as this fabrication is publicly accepted.
In strong opposition, Gore showed a photo of a DAC unit in Iceland, which will be enhanced enough in 7 years so that each DAC unit will be able to capture 27 seconds worth of annual emissions. (TED talk 15:00) Are you kidding me!!!
On a cost-effective basis, DAC is not credible. Moreover, the biggest obstacle to DAC is physics, CO2 makes up ~0.035% of the air, meaning DACs will vacuum the other 99.96% to get ~0.035% out of the air. (TED talk 16:00) Oh, please! It’s a bad joke and cannot possibly meet the scale required just to keep up with current emissions.
Meanwhile oil companies are using DAC to effectively gaslight the public.
DAC is a sizeable task that’s nearly impossible to fully comprehend and in fact impossible to wrap arms around because it’s the planet that’s at issue; it’s really big! The scale of infrastructure that’s required to make a significant difference is beyond a Marshall Plan prototype, which would be a blip on direct air capture’s radar. According to renowned physicist Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions, to stay abreast of current emissions: “If you built a hundred million trailer-size units you could actually keep up with current emissions.” (Source: Elizabeth Kolbert, Can Carbon-Dioxide Removal Save the World? The New Yorker, Nov. 20, 2017) End-to-end 100,000,000 units will circumnavigate the planet 44 times. Oh, sure!
According to The World Benchmark Alliance and the Carbon Disclosure Project: “The oil and gas sector has made almost no progress towards the Paris Agreement goals since 2021… There has been little advance in oil, and alarmingly, even some decline in oil and gas companies’ progress on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.”
The host of COP28, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is rated as one of the least responsible of all the oil and gas companies. “It no longer voluntarily reports any emissions data… it scores an anemic 3.8 on a 1-to-100 scale for transition plans.”
The global allocation of capital is another major obstacle to overcoming a very sticky climate disaster scenario that’s already unfolding right before our eyes. As it happens, global warming embarrassingly arrived too early to the party. Meanwhile, last year governments around the world subsidized fossil fuel by more than one trillion dollars. And since Paris ’15, the 60 largest global banks have committed $5.5T to fossil fuel investments. Confusingly, 49 of the 60 banks signed net zero pledges… Why?
Al Gore did not mention the grueling fact that the climate system has already gone off the rails way earlier than expected. Realistically, how much time is left?
And when will the Conference of the Parties toss out, or ignore, if that’s possible, special interests, e.g., oil companies lurking behind every curtain, and thereafter base policy decisions upon science, which would be a positive change in COP’s approach to tackling the biggest threat since an asteroid slammed into the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico?
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