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Tipping Points – Where Things Stand

Photo by Roxanne Desgagnés is licensed by Unsplash
Photo by Roxanne Desgagnés is licensed by Unsplash

Tipping Points – Where Things Stand

By Robert Hunziker

Major planetary boundaries that support life are at risk of collapse. This is happening at speeds that climate scientists never thought possible. What are the consequences and what, if anything, can be done?

Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, Germany recently gave a 20-mimute TED speech: The Tipping Points of Climate Change. He is a world-class climate scientist specializing in planetary boundary frameworks. Of note, Dr. Rockström is one climate scientist that other scientists pay attention to when he talks.

A summation of what should be categorized as “one of the most important speeches of 2024” is included herein.

It’s fair to say that he views recent abrupt Earth system changes as profoundly disturbing and far beyond the boundaries of what climate science expected. In fact, climate scientists have never seen such rapid transition of what’s normally a slow-moving Earth system now in the wrong direction so rapidly that it’s threatening the existence of key ecosystems that make today’s life possible.

In his words: “The planet is now in a place where we’ve underestimated risks. Abrupt changes are occurring way beyond realistic expectations in science.” It was fifteen years ago when he introduced a planetary boundary framework composed of nine earth system processes to determine the stability, resilience, and life support on planet Earth.

Then, ten years ago 195 countries signed the Paris ’15 climate agreement.

And in 2019, five years ago, the signatories to Paris ‘15 entered the most decisive decade of this generation where their choices this decade determine the future for all generations on Earth.

The scientific state of the planet as of August 2024:

!) We’ve reached 1.2°C mean surface temperature above pre-industrial. This is the warmest in 100,000 years.

2) We touched 1.5°C as an annual mean temperature in 2023.

3) The biggest worry is evidence of an “acceleration of warming.” Over the past 50 years, the rate of warming was 0.18C per decade from 1970 to 2010 but from 2014 onward it’s been 0.26C per decade, or +45%, and if this course continues, we’ll crash thru 2C within 20 years and hit 3C by 2200, a disastrous outcome, caused by humans.

4) But it’s much more than CO2 that’s at issue. Several things are undermining the stability of the planet. For example, over-consumption of fresh water, the 6th mass extinction of species, abusing freshwater systems with nitrogen phosphorus, etc.

A combination of factors has disrupted the Earth system by spreading chaos across the planet, droughts, floods, heat waves, disease patterns, human-caused massive storms, 40°C (104°F) life-threatening heat across all continents in the year 2023. In Mecca, 52°C (126°F) hit over 1,000 worshipers who lost their lives at the Hajj pilgrimage in June 2024. At current rates, by 2050 expect an 18% economic loss of GDP or $38 trillion per year. The abrupt change in Earth systems is starting to hurt in human social costs and economic costs.

And it is happening at only 1.2°C mean surface global temperature. But we’re on a path to 2.7C this century. Will floods, droughts, and heat waves get worse? Without immediate mitigation efforts, yes.

As far back as 3,000,000 years the planet never exceeded 2C. We’ve been living in “The Corridor of Life.” It’s all we’ve got.

Alas, the risks are even more serious. There are two major risks to the planetary system: 1) buffering capacity 2) crossing tipping points. And both are moving in the wrong direction much faster than anybody thought possible.

Buffering capacity is Earth’s ability to dampen shocks and stress, e.g., soaking up greenhouse gases that impact nature on land and ocean. Mother Earth has been very, very forgiving, as 53% of CO2 from fossil fuels have been soaked up by intact nature on land and sea. However, there is increasing scientific evidence of “widening cracks in this system.”

For example, land absorbs 31% of CO2 of greenhouse emissions, but the boreal forests in Canada and temperate mixed forests in Germany and Russia are all starting to lose carbon uptake capacity. More alarming yet, the latest science shows part of Amazon rainforest, the richest biome on terrestrial land, has already tipped and in parts of the forest it is no longer a carbon sink. It’s becoming a carbon source. Yet, the Amazon is vital to the health of the planet, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle and water cycle and responsible for absorbing billions of tons of emissions. This unique one-of-a-kind force of nature is at risk like never before.

But what’s most cause for concern is the ocean. It absorbs 90% of the heat caused by human-induced climate change. This is well understood. But what’s really worrying is the latest data on temperature all-across the ocean. It has been getting warmer and warmer since 1980. Then, suddenly, out of the blue, in 2023 temperatures went completely off the charts at 0.4C above the warmest temps of all previous years.

What’s happening?

Scientists do not know what’s happening, but it is off the charts and continuing in that same direction in 2024.

Searching for answers, the number one candidate is “energy imbalance caused by humans.” The imbalance is enormous, for example, in one year alone the heat equivalent of 300-times the entire global electricity system is absorbed by the Earth system.

Meanwhile, scientists question whether the ocean is losing its resilience, at risk of releasing heat back into the atmosphere, thus self-amplifying the warming process. Science does not have answers for this, but something totally unprecedented in this regard may be happening right before our eyes.

Here’s what is known for certain… The ocean is sounding the alarm.

The planetary system is now at a point where we’re forced to ask the following questions: Are we are risk of pushing the planet out of the basin of attraction or the stability of the planet where we’ve been since the last ice age? Are we headed to unstoppable Hot House Earth with self-amplified warming and losing life support?

The bigger question is: What could take us there?

The answer is “crossing over tipping points” takes us there.

Crossing tipping points references the big systems (a) Greenland (b) the ice sheets (c) overturning of heat in the North Atlantic (d) the Amazon rainforest, by pushing them too far, thus tipping over from a state that helps us to a state of self-amplifying in the wrong direction. This is taking the planet from a mode of cooling and dampening to self-amplifying and warming.

There are 16 tipping systems that regulate the climate system. Five of these tipping systems are what’s referred to as ground zero in the Arctic connection thru the ocean via the AMOC of the Atlantic overturning heat all the way down to Antarctica. We depend upon this big biophysical system for stability of the planet. At what temperatures is this at risk of tipping?

For the first time, we have an answer. The average temperature at which 5 of 16 are likely to cross the tipping point is at 1.5C, including (1) the Greenland ice sheet (2) West Antarctica ice sheet (3) abrupt thawing permafrost (4) losing all tropical coral reefs and (5) collapse of the Bering Sea ice. The two major ice sheets hold 10M (33-feet) of sea level rise.

(Editorial: According to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial for the first time in human history for a 12-month period from July 2023 to June 2024, when it averaged 1.64°C)

In all, the more science learns about the climate system, the higher science discovers the risks. We’ve got a planet that’s smack dab in the midst of a high-level danger zone.

For example, the Amazon basin risks tipping into savannah, over time. Currently, the risk is loss of the forest system; tipping can occur at 1.5-2C, assuming loss of 20-25% of forest cover. It’s currently at 17% deforestation. This is very close to a tipping point when there is no turning back.

What must be done to avoid what increasingly looks inevitable?

According to the IPCC, to stay under 1.5C (sustained annually over a few years) we need to operate within the global carbon budget. But all that remains of that budget is 200B tons of CO2. Yet, 40B tons is emitted per year giving 5 years.at current emissions rates before we hit overbudget. Moreover, the IPCC says a pathway for a safe landing is to reduce emissions by 7% per year for a safe landing to net zero by 2050.

(Editorial- that’ll take some serious work: Global CO2 emissions are blasting off to the upside and not looking back)

Status of Atmospheric CO2 (Mauna Loa):

August 2, 2024 – 424.76 ppm

August 2, 2023 – 421.52 ppm

One-year change: 3.24 ppm

1960-year change: 0.71 ppm

Meanwhile, we’ve already overloaded the climate system with gases and other problems that inevitably lead to a period of overshoot. Therefore, society must be prepared for breaching 1.5C between 2030 and 2035 or within 5-to-10 years.

There are two main messages; 1) buckle up- we know 100% for sure it means more droughts, more floods, more heat waves, more human reinforced storms, more disease over one generation, plus, in time. 2023 which was the warmest year on record will be looked back on as a mild year, 2) why would the planet come back to 1.5 after an overshoot?

The health of the planet must be kept intact. We must have a planet that can continue to absorb 50% of CO2 without crossing tipping points. But, of special note and caution, there is no holding to 1.5C by only phasing out fossil fuels. More needs to be done like coming back to nature’s biodiversity and maintaining all the planetary boundaries of nature.

We are at a pivot point for either transforming the world for the better or going over the edge… which will it be.?

We must govern the entire planet…we have the solutions, i.e., (1) rapid transition away from fossil fuels (2) transitioning to a circular business model (3) transitioning to healthy diets (4) scaling regeneration and restoration of marine systems, forests, and wetlands.

Already of serious concern, starting from 2020, emissions had to be cut in half by 2030 to stay out of trouble but halfway into the decade and emissions are steeper than ever. This is what really concerns scientists.

In summation, scientists have issued warnings for years and years, but now even those warnings look too conservative. Problematically, it is obvious that none of the prior warnings were embraced by the 195 countries that committed to mitigate emissions at Paris ’15 UN climate agreement. Since 2015, atmospheric CO2 has steadily climbed, year-by-year, never down, to all-time highs as global mean temperatures sets new records by the month.

The evidence is clear: Paris ’15 has not made a dent in global warming, which is currently cruising up, up and away, all-time records and accelerating with nothing standing in its way. In fact, since 195 countries agreed to tackle the issue, emissions and temperatures have done the opposite of what they agreed to by increasing at the fastest rates in human history.

The Paris ‘15 plans to mitigate emissions are so far behind schedule that it’s questionable whether it’s achievable. What’s to stop emissions and temperatures from getting worse and sea level from flooding coastal megacities? Eight of the world’s top ten megacities are coastal.

Solution: Opportunity is a prerequisite for a solution and 195 nations opportunistically meet once per year at a UN climate conference. Maybe they’ll adopt an agreement to control greenhouse gas emissions that’s meaningfully enforceable. Voluntary doesn’t work.

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This article was originally published on August 23, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

Note: This article will also be posted on the Facing Future Now! Facebook group. If you would like to comment on this article, please go to the Facebook group and post your comments there under the article posting.

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The Future of Our World by Noam Chomsky

A portrait of linguist Noam Chomsky in 2015
A portrait of linguist Noam Chomsky in 2015 by Augusto Starita is licensed by CC BY-SA 2.0

The Future of Our World by Noam Chomsky

By Robert Hunziker

Noam Chomsky (95) famous dissident and father of modern linguistics, considered one of the world’s leading intellectuals, is recovering from a stroke he suffered at age 94 and now living with his wife in Brazil. According to a report in Amy Goodman’s Democracy Now d/d July 2, 2024, this past June Brazilian President Lula personally visited Chomsky, holding his hand, saying: “You are one of the most influential people of my life” personally witnessed by Vijay Prashad, co-author with Noam Chomsky, The Withdrawal (The New Press).

Indeed, Noam Chomsky is established as one of the most influential intellectuals of the 21st century.

A pre-stroke video interview with Chomsky conducted at the University of Arizona is extraordinarily contemporary and insightful with a powerful message: What Does the Future Hold Q&A With Noam Chomsky hosted by Lori Poloni-Staudinger, Dean of School of Behavioral Sciences and Professor, School of Government and Public Policy, University of Arizona.

Chomsky joined the School of Behavioral Sciences in 2017 and taught “Consequences of Capitalism.”

This article is a synopsis of some of Chomsky’s responses to questions, and it includes third-party supporting facts surrounding his statements about the two biggest risks to humanity’s continual existence.

What Does the Future Hold?

Question: geopolitics, unipolar versus multipolar

Chomsky: First there are two crises that determine whether it is even appropriate to consider how geopolitics will look in the future: (1) threat of nuclear war (2) the climate crisis.

“If the climate crisis is not dealt with in the next few years, human society is essentially finished. Everything else is moot unless these two crises are dealt with.”

(This paragraph is not part of Chomsky’s answer) Regarding Chomsky’s warning, several key indicators of the climate crisis are flashing red, not green. For example, nine years ago 195 nations at the UN climate conference Paris ‘15 agreed to take measures to mitigate CO2 emissions to hold global warming to under 1.5°C pre-industrial. Yet, within only nine years of that agreement amongst 195 nations, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial for the first time in human history for a 12-month period from February 2023 to January 2024 and now fast approaching danger zones. Obviously, nations of the world did not follow their own dictates, and if not them, who will?

Paleoclimatology has evidence of what to expect if the “climate crisis,” as labeled by Chomsky, is not dealt with (The following paragraph is also not part of Chomsky’s answer): “While today’s CO2-driven climate change scenario is unprecedented in human history, similar circumstances existed in the geological record that give us an idea of what to expect in the way of global sea level rise, and the process that will get us there. About 3.2 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch, CO2 levels were about 400 ppm (427 ppm today) and temperatures were 2-3°C above the “pre-industrial” temperatures of 1850-1880. At the same time, proxy data indicate global sea level was about 52 feet (within a 39-foot to 66-foot range) higher than today.” (Source: The Sleeping Giant Awakens, Climate Adaptation Center, May 21, 2024)

Maybe that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strongly suggests keeping temperatures ideally below 1.5°C and certainly not above 2.0°C pre-industrial.

Chomsky on World Power: Currently the center of world power, whether unipolar or multipolar is very much in the news. This issue has roots going back to the end of WWII when the US established overwhelming worldwide power. But now the Ukraine war has the world very much divided with most of world outside of the EU, US and its allies calling for diplomatic settlement. But the US position is that the war must continue to severely weaken Russia.

Consequently, Ukraine is dividing the world, and it shows up in the framework of unipolar versus multipolar. For example, the war has driven the EU away from independent status to firm control by the US. In turn the EU is headed towards industrial decline because of disruption of its natural trading partners, e.g., Russia is full of natural resources that the EU is lacking, which economist have always referred to as a “marriage made in heaven,” a natural trading relationship that has now been broken. (footnote: EU industrial production down 3.9% past 12 months)

And the Ukrainian imbroglio is cutting off EU access to markets in China e.g., China has been an enormous market for German industrial products. Meanwhile, the US is insisting upon a unipolar framework of world order that wants not only the EU but the world to be incorporated within something like the NATO system. Under US pressure NATO has expanded its reach to the Indo-Pacific region, meaning NATO is now obligated to take part in the US conflict with China.

Meantime, the rest of the world is trying to develop a multipolar world with several independent sectors of power. The BRICS countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, South Africa, want an independent source of power of their own. They are 40% of world economy that’s independent of US sanctions and of the US dollar.

These are developing conflicts over one raging issue and one developing issue. Ukraine is the raging issue; the developing issue is US conflict with China, which is developing its own projects in Eurasia, Africa, Middle East, South Africa, S9uth Asia, and Latin America.

The US is determined to prevent China’s economic development throughout the world. The Biden administration has “virtually declared a kind of war with China” by demanding that Western allies refuse to permit China to carry out technological development.

For example, the US insist others do not allow China access to any technology that has any US parts in it. This includes everything, as for example, Netherlands has a world-class lithographic industry which produces critical parts for semi-conductors for the modern high-tech economy. Now, Netherlands must determine whether it’ll move to an independent course to sell to China, or not… the same is true for Samsung, South Korea, and Japan.

The world is splintered along those lines as the framework for the foreseeable future.

Question— Will multinational corporations gain too much power and influence?

Chomsky suggests looking at them right now… US based multinationals control about one-half of the world’s wealth. They are first or second in every domain like manufacturing and retail; no one else is close. It’s extraordinary power. Based upon GDP, the US has 20% of world GDP, but if you look at US multinationals it’s more like 50%. Multinationals have extraordinary power over domestic policy in both the US and in other capitalistic countries. So, how will multinationals react when told they cannot deal with a major market, like China?

How does this develop over future years? The EU is going into a period of decline because of breaking relationships in trade and commercial business with the East. Yet, it’s not sure that the EU will stay subordinate to the US and willingly go into decline, or will the EU join the rest of the world and move into a more complex multipolar world and integrate with countries in the East? This is yet to be determined. For example, France’s President Emmanuel Macron (2017-) has been vilified and condemned for saying that after Russia is driven out of Ukraine, a way must be found to accommodate Russia within an international system, an initial crack in the US/EU relationship.

Threat of nuclear war question: Russia suspended the START Nuclear Arms Treaty with the US and how important is this to the threat of nuclear war?

Chomsky: It is very significant. It is the last remaining arms control treaty, the new START Treaty, Trump almost cancelled it. The treaty was due to expire in February when Biden took over in time to extend it, which he did.

Keep in mind that the US was instrumental in creating a regime which somewhat mitigates the threat of nuclear war, which means “terminal war.” We talk much too casually about nuclear war. There can’t be a nuclear war. If there is, we’re finished. It’s why the Doomsday Clock is set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it’s been.

Starting with George W. Bush the US began dismantling arms control. Bush dismantled the ABM Treaty, a missile treaty very significantly part of the arms control system and an enormous threat to Russia. So, the dismantling allowed the US to set up installations right at the border of Russia. It’s a severe threat to Russia. And Russia has reacted.

The Trump administration got rid of the INF Treaty, the Reagan-Gorbachev treaty of 1987 which ended short-range missiles in Europe. Those missiles are now back in place on the borders of Russia. Trump, to make it clear that we meant business, arranged missile launches right away upon breaking of the treaty.

Trump destroyed the Open Skies Treaty which originated with Eisenhower stating that each side should share information about what the other side was doing to reduce the threat of misunderstanding.

Only the new START Treaty remains. And Russia suspended it. START restricts the number of strategic weapons for each side. The treaty terminates in 2026, but it’s suspended by Russia anyway. So, in effect there are no agreed upon restraints to increasing nuclear weapons.

Both sides already have way more nuclear weapons than necessary; One Trident nuclear submarine could destroy a couple hundred cities all over the world. And land based nuclear missile locations are known by both sides. So, if there is a threat, those would be hit immediately. Which means if there’s a threat, “you’d better send’em off, use’em or lose’em.” This obviously is a very touchy, extraordinarily risky situation because one mistake could amplify very quickly.

The new START Treaty that’s been suspended by Russia did restrict the enormous excessive number of strategic weapons. So, we should be in negotiations right now to expand it, restore it, and reinstitute the treaties the US has dismantled, the INF Treaty, Reagan-Gorbachev treaty, ABM Treaty, Open Stars Treaty should all be brought back.

Question: Will society muster the will for change for equity, prosperity, and sustainability?

Chomsky: There is no answer. It’s up to the population to come to grips with issues and say we are not going to march to the precipice and fall over it. But it’s exactly what our leaders are telling us to do. Look at the environmental crisis. It is well understood that we may have enough time to control heating of the environment, destruction of habitat, destruction of the oceans which is going to lead to total catastrophe. It’s not like everybody will die all at once, but we’re going to reach irreversible tipping points that becomes just a steady decline. To know how serious it is, look at particular areas of the world.

The Middle East region is one of the most rapidly heating regions of the world at rates twice as fast as the rest of the world. Projections by the end of the century at current trajectories show sea level in Mediterranean will rise about 10 feet.

Look at a map where people live, it is indescribable. Around Southeast Asia and peasants in India are trying to survive temperatures in the 120s where less than 10% of population has air conditioning. This will cause huge migrations from areas of the world where life will become unlivable.

Fossil fuel companies are so profitable that they’ve decided to quit any sustainable efforts in favor of letting profits run as fast and as far as possible. They’re opening new oil and gas fields that can produce another 30-40 years but at that point we’ll all be finished.

We have the same issue with nuclear weapons as with the environment. If these two issues are not dealt with, in the not-too-distant future, it’ll be all over. The population needs to “have the will” to stop it.

Question: How do we muster that will?

Chomsky: Talk to neighbors, join community organizations, join activist’s groups, press Congress, get out into the streets if necessary. How have things happened in the past? For example, back in the 1960s small groups of women got together, forming consciousness-raising groups and it was 1975 (Sex Discrimination Act) that women were granted the right of persons peers under US domestic law, prior to that we’re still back in the age of the founding fathers when women were property Look at the Civil Rights movement. Go back to the 1950s, Rosa Parks refused to move from her seat on a bus that was planned by an organized group of activists that led to the Montgomery Bus Boycott, big change… in 1960 a couple of black students in No. Carolina decided to sit in at a lunch counter segregated. Immediately arrested, and the next day another group came… later they became organized as SNCC, Student Nonviolent Coordinated Committee. Young people from the North started to join. Next freedom buses started running to Alabama to convince black farmers to cast a vote. It went on this way, building, until you got civil rights legislation in Washington.

What’s happening right now as an example of what people can do? The Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA. It’s mostly a climate change act. The only way you can get banks and fossil fuel companies to stop destroying the world is to bribe them. That’s basically our system. But IRA is not the substantial program that Biden presented. It is watered down. The original came out of Bernie Sander’s office. As for the background for that, young people, from the Sunrise Movement, were active and organizing and sat in on Congressional offices. AOC joined them. A bill came out of this, but Republican opposition cut back the original bill by nearly 100% They are a denialist party. They want to destroy the world in the interest of private profit. The final IRA bill is nowhere near enough.

Summation: Chomsky sees a world of turmoil trying to sort out whether unipolar or multipolar wins the day with the Ukrainian war serving as a catalyst to change. Meanwhile, the EU carries the brunt of its impact. Meantime, nuclear arms treaties have literally dissolved in the face of a tenuous situation along the Russia/EU borders with newly armed missiles pointed at Russia’s heartland. In the face of this touch-and-go Russia vs. the West potentially explosive scenario, the global climate system is under attack via excessive fossil fuel emissions cranking up global temperatures beyond what 195 countries agreed was a danger zone.

Chomsky sees a nervous nuclear weapons-rattling high-risk world flanked by unmitigated deterioration of ecosystems that global warming steadily, assuredly takes down for the count, as global temperatures set new records. He calls for individuals to take action, do whatever necessary to change the trajectory of nuclear weaponry and climate change to save society. Chomsky offered several examples of small groups of people acting together, over time, turning into serious protests and ultimately positive legislation.

This article covers the first 34 minutes of a 52-minute video: Noam Chomsky: About the Future of Our World.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed individuals can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” (Margaret Mead, anthropologist)

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This article was originally published on August 16, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

Note: This article will also be posted on the Facing Future Now! Facebook group. If you would like to comment on this article, please go to the Facebook group and post your comments there under the article posting.

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Midwinter Antarctica

Photo by Jay Ruzesky is licensed by Unsplash.
Photo by Jay Ruzesky is licensed by Unsplash.

Midwinter Antarctica 50° F Above Average

By Robert Hunziker

Temperatures for the entire month of July in Antarctica were 50°F above average, but it also experienced days when temperatures spiked up to 82°F above average. Yes, Antarctica is the world’s deep freeze, and it is the dead of winter. What does this portend?

For starters, according to Michael Dukes, director of forecasting at MetDesk: “In Antarctica generally that kind of warming in the winter and continuing into summer months can lead to collapsing of the ice sheets.” (Source: Antarctica Temperatures Rise 10C Above Average in Near Record Heatwave, The Guardian, August 1, 2024)

Already, the summers of 2022 and 2023 saw unprecedented loss of Antarctic sea ice, which fell below 2 million square kilometers for the first time in the satellite record going back to 1979. Moreover, the year 2023 marked the 8th year of steep decline in sea ice. (Source: The Sleeping Giant Awakens, Climate Adaptation Center, May 21, 2024)

Antarctica is massive with total area as large as the US and Mexico combined and average ice thickness of 7,200 feet covering 98% of the continent which is 90% of the world’s ice and 70% of the fresh water of the world. There’s plenty for global warming to work with!

A primary ongoing concern is sea level rise. According to NASA, the rate of sea level rise has tripled in the 21st century.

What’s Next?

As for future expectations, there is a paleoclimate record that spells out what to expect:

“While today’s CO2-driven climate change scenario is unprecedented in human history, similar circumstances existed in the geological record that give us an idea of what to expect in the way of global sea level rise, and the process that will get us there. About 3.2 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch, CO2 levels were about 400 ppm, and temperatures were 2-3°C above the “pre-industrial” temperatures of 1850-1880. At the same time, proxy data indicate global sea level was about 52 feet (within a 39-foot to 66-foot range) higher than today,” Ibid.

Maybe that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strongly suggests keeping temperatures ideally below 1.5°C but not above 2.0°C pre-industrial, at all costs, or big trouble ensues. FYI- The IPCC looks for sustained temps above 1.5°C for several years to declare it official. And the world has already blown thru the 1.5°C barrier. Hopefully, that barrier eases up or stabilizes, but it requires cutting emissions almost immediately. Good luck with that. Global CO2 emissions are blasting off to the upside and not looking back.

Status of Atmospheric CO2 (Mauna Loa):

August 2, 2024 – 424.76 ppm

August 2, 2023 – 421.52 ppm

One-year change: 3.24 ppm

1960-year change: 0.71 ppm

CO2 affects temperature, which, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), exceeded 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial for the first time in a 12-month period from February 2023 to January 2024. This is the level that 195 countries that signed onto the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to stay below. Oops! It only took 9 years.

For the record: “The annual rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 60 years is about 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as those that occurred at the end of the last ice age 11,000-17,000 years ago.” (Source: Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Climate.gov, April 9, 2024)

That explains why it only took 9 years to hit 1.5C. Paleoclimate research of the above-mentioned Pliocene era shows a CO2 rate of increase of 0.02 ppm/annum in nature without humans around. But human influence has cranked it up to 2.80 ppm/annum (the 2023 full year rate) more than 100 times faster. Ipso facto, global warming is on a warpath.

According to Climate Adaptation Center: “Research supports the conclusion that by 2°C, virtually all of Greenland, most of West Antarctica and part of East Antarctica will be locked into long-term, irrevocable sea level rise, even if we succeed in drawing down temperatures at a later date. This is primarily because the warmer ocean will hold heat much longer than the atmosphere, and because of a number of self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms. As a result, it takes ice sheets much longer to grow back (tens of thousands of years) than to lose their ice,” Ibid.

All of which leads to when or if Antarctic sea ice will reach a serious breaking point. This challenging supposition has possibly been answered: “What happened in the winter of 2023 shocked scientists. ‘It was completely off the rails,’ according to Ted Scambos, senior researcher at Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). ‘Throughout the 2023 austral winter, sea ice was far below any previous winter extent in the 45-year satellite record.” (Source: Has Antarctic Sea Ice Hit a Breaking Point? Earth Data, National Snow and Ice Date Center, NSIDC, July 4, 2024)

Regime Shift in Antarctica

There’s clear evidence of what’s referred to as a “regime shift” in Antarctica, to wit: “Low sea ice extent once dominated certain areas, especially near the Antarctic Peninsula, but now all sectors surrounding Antarctica are responding together. Referred to as ‘spatial coherence,’ this is yet another sign that something is shifting for Antarctic sea ice, not just in some areas, not just in some years, but on larger scales and for longer periods. These Antarctic-wide sea ice changes, together with their greater variability and persistence, are three main factors that indicate a regime shift,” Ibid.

Additionally, sea ice is taking longer to recover from low extents and the recovered ice is thinner than decades earlier. All of which is attributable to a warming planet, with Antarctica experiencing bouts of excessively high anomalous temperatures more frequently, even during winter, but winter-time temperatures do remain below freezing. Nevertheless, the major concern is the warming trend and “regime shift,” moreover, what’s not seen is most concerning, for example: A headline in Live Science d/d May 21, 2024: Warm Ocean Water is Rushing Beneath Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier,’ Making Collapse More Likely.

Indeed, it would be enormously comforting if scientists could say for sure that the prospect of collapsing ice sheets and rapidly flowing glaciers on a major scale, taking sea levels far too high, flooding coastal cities, are not a concern this century, so, no sweat, don’t worry. But they can’t say that because climate change is moving much faster than scientists’ models predict. For example, nobody in 200o or 2010 or even a few years ago foresaw a major “Antarctic regime shift” or a 12-month consecutive increase of +1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2024. In point of fact, climate change is so far ahead of schedule that it’s ridiculous.

If climate models missed identifying the shockingly rapid onset of two extremely powerful climate-altering events, signaling deep trouble dead ahead, what are they missing now?

According to Sharon Stammerjohn, senior researcher at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder: “Conceptually, I just see this wall of heat knocking at the door in the Southern Ocean, and it’s starting to find ways to come in,” Ibid.

Here’s what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at World Environment Day June 5, 2024, about heat finding its way: “The truth is the world is spewing emissions so fast that by 2030, a far higher temperature rise would be all but guaranteed… The truth is we already face incursions into the 1.5-degree territory… In 2015, they said the chance of such a breach was near zero.” He calls for nations of the world to come together to halt fossil fuel emissions.

Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Declaration of 2021: “There can be no new oil and gas infrastructure if the planet is to avoid careering past 1.5C (2.7F) of global heating, above pre-industrial times.”

However, the truth is revealed only three years later, Global Energy Monitor 2024 Report: “The world’s fossil-fuel producers are on track to nearly quadruple the amount of extracted oil and gas from newly approved projects by the end of this decade, with the US leading the way in a surge of activity that threatens to blow apart agreed climate goals.”

That’ll crank up Mauna Loa’s CO2 readings to “spinning out of control” mode.

And, just for good measure: “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.” (Amin Nasser, Head of Aramco, speaking in Texas, March 2024).

A wall of heat hitting Antarctica is bad news and “regime shift” tells a worrisome tale. And with CO2 already cranking 100+ times faster than all history, and with fossil fuel interests on a road to madness, where does this leave Antarctica? No comment.

Still, where do things stand? There are scientists on both sides of the maxim “we are screwed,” some say, “we can still work out of this self-inflicted disaster,” but others say, “it’s already too late.” Usually, these situations end up somewhere in the middle. So, what will “we are partially screwed” look like?

Not good.

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This article was originally published on August 9, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Methane Emissions “Fastest in Decades”

Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash
Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash

Methane Emissions “Fastest in Decades”

By Robert Hunziker

A new study shows methane (CH4) emissions behaving like a sprinter on speed, setting decadal records. This is bad news. It’s 80-times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat.

“Global emissions of methane, a powerful planet-heating gas, are ‘rising rapidly’ at the fastest rate in decades, requiring immediate action to help avert a dangerous escalation in the climate crisis, a new study has warned.” (Source: Global Methane Emissions Rising at Fastest Rate in Decades, Scientists Warn, The Guardian, July 30, 2024)

The new study by Drew Shindell, et al, The Methane Imperative, Frontiers in Science, July 29, 2024 discusses the methane issue and steps that must be taken to mitigate methane emissions. These steps are considered critical to meet well-advertised goals to limit global warming, which has not been limited nearly enough to count. On the contrary, it’s getting hotter by the year, every year.

Another new study underscores failures to tackle the methane problem: “New comprehensive aerial measurements show oil and natural gas producers across the U.S. are emitting methane into the atmosphere at over four times the rates estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency for those same areas based on industry-reported data. The results also show that operators are exceeding their own widely touted emissions goals eightfold.” (Source: New Data Show U.S. Oil & Gas Methane Emissions Over Four Times Higher Than EPA Estimates, Eight Times Greater Than Industry Target, Environmental Defense Fund, July 31, 2024)

“Regardless of the reasons, the emission rates are way too high. New, long-anticipated EPA rules finalized earlier this year by the Biden-Harris administration that leverage widely available, cost-effective solutions, along with methane reduction incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act, are vital to bringing the numbers down. It is essential that states and EPA move forward with swiftly implementing these protective standards,” Ibid.

Trump has publicly stated he will destroy Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and let producers off the hook and institute policies that increase greenhouse gases. In that regard, according to Bloomberg News: “The White House’s policies have fueled plans for more than $200 billion in cleantech manufacturing investments mostly (ed. $161B) in districts with Republican lawmakers opposed (ed. all of them opposed it) to the agenda.” (Bloomberg News d/d June 20, 2024)

The past two years of heat on top of more record-setting heat is a sure sign of failure to control human-generated greenhouse gases like CH4, but more troubling yet, slowly but steadily self-reinforcing permafrost melt as well as glacial melt contribute to increasing levels of CH4 as if on automatic pilot, feeding on global warming it creates, releasing CH4. This is real danger, and it’s flashing red. Controlling CH4 emissions wherever humanly possible cannot be done soon enough. Global warming is not waiting around. This could get real messy real soon unless the brakes are put on emissions.

With global news already covering widespread overheating of the planet, which is caused by excessive levels of greenhouse gases, new news that methane (CH4) has gone ballistic should make bolder headlines because, more insidiously than CO2, it turns up the thermostat, causing all kinds of problems for human survival. Already, several regions of the world were/are on the ropes, feeling dangerous levels of heat. “The human body can only accommodate temperatures above 95 degrees with high humidity for short periods of time.” (Source: Americares)

Humans lose 80% of body heat through sweating. When both humidity and heat combined are too high, sweating becomes harder and harder until impossible to shed heat. According to a study at Arizona State University, a healthy young adult could die after six hours of 92°F with 50% humidity. (Source: Hottest Survivable Temperatures Are Lower Than Expected, Scientific American, December 12, 2023)

According to Global Methane Tracker 2024: “The concentration of methane in the atmosphere is now over two-and-a-half times greater than the pre-industrial levels. The increase has accelerated in recent years and preliminary data indicates that there was another significant annual increase in 2023.”

Earth System Research Laboratories (as of July 5, 2024)

Global CH4 Monthly Means:

March 2024 1930.75 ppb

March 1983 1645.00 ppb (when official measurements started)

The Shindell study clearly points to fossil fuels, primarily oil and gas production, and increased decomposition rates from wetlands because of global warming, which, of course, accelerates excessive levels of CH4, meaning, it’s self-reinforcing. This is evident across the vastness of Arctic permafrost covering roughly 20% of the Northern Hemisphere. It’s a time bomb that’s already ticking. And it is enormous.

Hopefully, nations of the world hurry mitigation measures because the methane curse is not just oil and gas production and wetlands in specific easily accessed regions. Several studies have exposed threats heretofore ignored where CH4 is cocked and loaded and ready to accelerate. e.g., (1) a recent study found migrating methane gas under the base of permafrost in Svalbard, Norway which has “significant implications for climate change.” (2) Arctic News d/d January 14, 2024 reported the impact of rising Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures “… threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and lead to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrate.”

According to some studies, triggering a climate catastrophe that slams humanity down onto the mat is within the range of possibilities: “Methane bombs – gas fields where leakage alone from the full exploitation of the resources would result in emissions equivalent to at least a billion tonnes of CO2 – represent a huge threat to the climate and have the potential to release methane levels equivalent to three decades of all US greenhouse gas emissions, a new investigation by The Guardian has revealed.” (Source: Methane Bombs’ Release 30 Years Equivalent of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Risk Triggering Climate Catastrophe, Earth.org, March 8, 2023)

Underscoring these recent studies is a haunting incomprehensible undertone of human failure to address the risks of human extinction. Once the signs become more apparent, it’ll be too late. In fact, there are some rumblings that “too late” may be right around the corner, but that’s too pessimistic, or is it? Regardless, the offset to pessimism about climate change is nobody really knows for sure when what will happen, but trends tell a story, such as radical changes in ecosystems like tens of thousands of thermokarst lakes emitting CH4 suddenly appearing in Arctic permafrost regions of Siberia and Alaska as undeniably factual and impossible to accurately measure but rapidly surfacing methane bubbles up and away into the atmosphere, defining a cloudy uncertain future.

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This article was originally published on August 2, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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China’s Lightening Fast Renewable Triumphs

Photo of solar panels on the bank of the Xiyuan River in China by Davidzdh is licensed by CC BY-SA 4.0
Photo of solar panels on the bank of the Xiyuan River in China by Davidzdh is licensed by CC BY-SA 4.0

China’s Lightening-Fast Renewable Triumphs

By Robert Hunziker

A few years ago, China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry shook hands on a pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030. China took the challenge seriously, very seriously, it will meet its end-of-2030 emissions target this year (2014), six years early.

In the blink of an eye, China is constructing wind and solar farms that are equivalent to building five large nuclear power stations per week! Yes, per week. They understand the multitude of risks of climate change, especially since it is happening in real time right in everybody’s face, and they’re doing something about it faster than the rest of the world combined.

In 2023, China installed 293 gigawatts of wind and solar, taking capacity up to 1,050 gigawatts, which is more than double its capacity in 2020. For comparisons purposes, a typical nuclear power plant produces one (1) gigawatt of electricity. Already 51% of China’s electricity generation comes from non-fossil fuel sources.

China is sending signals to the rest of the world, just do it!

When President Biden committed $1 trillion to clean energy, China’s response was to double down and go twice as fast. Effectively, Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) inspired China to get off its butt and go all-in. This is direct evidence that America’s energy policies are infectious and impact major nations of the world.

It should be noted that Trump has publicly stated his intention to destroy Biden’s IRA renewable energy policies, tossing them out in favor of proposals similar to his Faustian bargain with oil and gas chieftains, if they cough-up $1 billion for his campaign, Trump cuts taxes and removes regulations to drill baby drill. That’ll make America great again, umm, change that to “make America hotter than ever!”

China is also deemphasizing nuclear as a solution to global warming by scaling back once-ambitious plans in favor of more wind and solar. According to Climate Energy Finance (Aust.), China is installing 10 gigawatts of wind and solar generation capacity every two weeks. It takes 10 years to build the same nuclear generating capacity. Nuclear versus renewables – no contest, renewables win hands down! (Source: China is Installing the Wind and Solar Equivalent of Five Large Nuclear Power Stations Per Week, ABC Science, July 15, 2024)

The Chinese Communist Party has teed up every department of government for renewables. This massive transition is taking place in remote regions like the Gobi Desert. On the western edge of the country, the world’s largest solar and wind farms are under construction. These massive power farms are connected to major cities via the world’s longest high-voltage transmission lines.

Since the start of the 21st Century, every Five-Year Plan has called for strategic investments in all aspects of renewable technologies. Most China watchers claim that Xi Jinping’s surprising announcement at the 2020 UN General Assembly promising that China would achieve peak emissions by 2030 lit the fire for even more rapid growth of renewable installations.

To stabilize supply of power, China is using a mix of pumped hydro and battery storage to supplement intermittent power. And alongside renewables, China is still building dozens of coal-fired plants to meet demands for electricity as heavy energy users, like electrified transport, place demands on the system beyond the current capacity of renewable installations, as well as providing stable power to balance intermittent solar and wind. Eventually, their goal is for renewables to overtake coal.

According to Climate Energy Finance’s Xuyang Dong, despite China’s reliance on coal, “having China go green at this speed and scale provides the world with a textbook to do the same” Energy experts claim China is upstaging the United States by taking the pole position on an issue that the world is just starting to experience in real time, i.e., the ravages of global warming.

Indeed, China’s proactive leadership role, by setting an example for how it’s done, gains worldwide respect and alliances. In that regard, the world spends $7 trillion a year on coal, gas, and oil, which could be used for renewables.

What of America?

When it comes to green policies and associated ethical standards, as well as fitness to handle the big job, America’s top presidential candidates are best described, in no particular order of relevance: (1) lackluster orange vs. radiant green (2) incoherent geriatric vs. scintillating maturity (3) convicted felon vs. experienced prosecutor. Nowadays, the chant “Lock him up” echoes at Democratic campaign rallies. Is this hitting below the belt? YES!

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This article was originally published on July 26, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Fukushima Toxic Dumping

Photo of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Photo of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power  by IAEA Imagebank; licensed by CC BY-SA 2.0

Fukushima Toxic Dumping

By Robert Hunziker

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is the world’s leading epicenter of toxic radioactive water released into the ocean. Yet, these activities are no longer closely monitored by mainstream media. As it happens, Tokyo Electric Power Company is the electric utility that manages the decommissioning of the collapsed nuclear reactors. This controversial ongoing release of radioactive water is mostly unopposed by the nations of the world. No problem, dump it!

But there is another side to this story.

“This is a time bomb.” (Robert Richmond, Ph.D. Kewalo Marine Laboratory)

A nationwide symposium on Zoom entitled: Radioactive Contamination of US Food and Water and What Congress Can Do About It, July 15, 2024, discussed several aspects of Fukushima’s dumping scheme. The details are disturbing and maybe horrifying.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (“TEPCO”) with the blessing of the government of Japan commenced dumping treated radioactive water into the ocean August 24th, 2023. Since 2011, TEPCO has been wrestling with one of the most recognizable industrial accidents in human history, three nuclear power plants still in a difficult to define meltdown thirteen (13) years after the initial meltdown.

It’s important to note that subsequent to the meltdown in March 2021 five ex-Japan prime ministers called for an end to nuclear power. In sharp contrast to those five former PM’s opposition, as of August 2022, current PM Fumio Kishida (2021 -) went all-in for nuclear power reactors, build, build, build.

Beginning in 2023 TEPCO commenced dumping treated radioactive water used to cool sizzling hot highly radioactive corium within the core of the crumpled reactors into the Pacific Ocean. Essentially, TEPCO unofficially christened the ocean “an open sewer.” It’s free! Yes, it’s free but not free for abuse. And why would anyone authorize broken-down crippled nuclear power plants to release toxic radioactive wastewater into the ocean?

According to TEPCO and several experts quoted in a BBC article, the low level of tritium radiation released is acceptable risk. One expert said he’d drink it. Well, can somebody please arrange for him to receive a supply of TEPCO’s radioactive wastewater to drink for one year. That’d be comparable to the ocean’s experience of one year. According to Emily Hammond, Ph. D., an expert in energy and environmental law with George Washington University: “The challenge with radionuclides (such as tritium) is that they present a question that science cannot fully answer; that is, at very low levels of exposure, what can be counted as ‘safe’? (Source: The Science Behind the Fukushima Waste Water Release, BBC, August 25, 2023)

But seriously, are there really, truly tolerable levels? According to the National Academy of Sciences, there are no safe doses of radiation. “Decades of research show clearly that any dose of radiation increases an individual’s risk for the development of cancer.”

TEPCO’s dumping is a testament to human frailty, not strength, endangering its own, and it’s difficult to stomach. There’s nothing positive about it, not one positive. Instead, it’s a boldfaced insult and slap in the face. Intuitively, logically, ethically, it’s impossible to justify turning the world’s oceans into open sewers. Oh, please!

The International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA) greeted the TEPCO/Japan government dumping scheme with open arms, as did the G7. But, in the process, IAEA violated its own stated principles, see: TEPCO’s ALPS-Treated Radioactive Water Dumping Plan Violated Essential Provisions of IAEA’s General Safety Guide N0. 8.

Indeed, IAEA’s endorsement begs a critical question of whom the public can trust when the IAEA overstates well-known facts about the dangers of tritium while violating its own policies for nuclear safety.

The July 15th symposium discusses the risks of Fukushima that are generally ignored by society at large. Some highlights of that exposé follow:

Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D. Institute for Energy and Environmental Research. Focus on tritium, Exploring Tritium Dangers to Protect Future Generations and Ecosystems, Congressional Briefing, 2024-07-15:

Tritium found in Fukushima’s wastewater, when exposed in humans is detrimental to the basic core of a person’s internal energy system, aka: the mitochondrial DNA, a bodily function that allows people to walk to talk to blink to process food, etc. This significant aspect of human DNA is very susceptible to damage by tritium. And the risk is identical for plants and animals.

A little tritium goes a long way. One teaspoon of tritiated water can contaminate 100 billion gallons of water (equivalent to 150,000 Olympic pools), a calculation that is based upon US drinking water standards. “Tritium turns water radioactive, so our most crucial ‘stuff of life’ becomes radioactive.” How many teaspoons will Fukushima produce?

The risks of internal exposure to tritium: “There’s clear evidence of neurological damage, according to the International Commission on Radiological Protection.”

Congress needs to address tighter regulations of tritium exposure for both humans and ecosystems.

Robert Richmond, research professor Kewalo Marine Laboratory, University of Hawaii, Achieving Healthier Oceans and People, Dumping of Nuclear Waste Undercuts Progress: A marine biologist viewpoint.

Already, the state of the ocean is in serious decline because of anthropogenic stressors. We need to reduce stressors, not add radionuclides to a very fragile marine ecosystem. Radionuclide effects are transboundary and transgenerational issues in addition to the complication of PFAS or “forever chemicals” starting to show up in alarming quantities. Compounding these dangers, the Fukushima discharge program will take 30+ years.

Fukushima’s discharge, according to Richmond: “This is a time bomb… Once the radionuclides are detected in fish, it will be too late to act. There’s no way to put the genie back in the bottle.”

The way the plumes of radionuclides are modeled for Fukushima dumping, they’ll reside in major Pacific fishing grounds in 7-12 years at concerning levels of impact. Tritium is not evenly distributed throughout the ocean. Statements that tritium will be widely dispersed/diluted do not hold up at all. Tritium ends up in fish that people eat, bio-accumulating within human bodies that have no defenses against organically bound tritium.

(Footnote: As tritium moves up the food chain it bioconcentrates and biomagnifies. Pro-nuclear advocates claim tritium passes thru the body within days, no harm done. This is not true. It bioaccumulates in living organisms. Numerous studies have proven this, e.g., Benedict C. Jaeschke, et al, Bioaccumulation of Tritiated Water and Trophic Transfer, etc. National Library of Medicine, January 2013.)

Additionally, “the Fukushima discharges violate numerous international protocols and established principles (1) the Precautionary Principle, and IAEA GSG-8 (2) ALARA principle – nobody should be exposed to radiation unless it is as treatment for cancer (3) UNCLOS (4) London Convention and Protocol (5) the newly passed High Seas Treaty (6) PIF 2050 Blue Continent Strategy (7) the spirit of the UN Ocean Decade.” Fukushima dumping violates all seven of these internationally recognized principles against dumping toxic substances into the world’s oceans.

Why is Fukushima given a pass on seven (7) internationally recognized violations?

Accordingly, new approaches and alternatives and regulations for toxic ocean dumping must be researched and established. Congress needs to address this as soon as possible.

James Gormley – Editor-in-Chief, Better Nutrition magazine, award-winning journalist, pioneer of science-centered coverage and a member of the US trade delegations in Paris and Rome for FAO/WHO Codex Alimentarius.

A multinational approach is required for assessment and radioactivity mitigation. We need a “whole-of-government approach” in the US inclusive of EPA, NOA, DOE, FDA, and Fish and Wildlife Service all-in tackling issues such as Fukushima’s radioactive ocean dumping. Congress needs to bring all federal assets together in unison to tackle this understudied and largely ignored risk to marine and human health.

Kimberly Roberson – Founder and executive director Fukushima Fallout Awareness Network (“FFAN”) est. June 2011.

A citizen’s petition regarding the risks associated with Fukushima was filed with the FDA on behalf of FFAN in 2013. Even though the FDA is required to respond to a citizen’s petition, to date, 11 years later, the only response has been a letter stating: “More time was needed.”

Meanwhile, according to Roberson: “TEPCO struggles to get Fukushima under control, and there is no end in sight. They say it will take 30 or 40 years, but nobody really knows for sure. In August of 2023, TEPCO began systematically dumping radioactive wastewater into the Pacific, but it is only partially filtered. TEPCO filled over 1,000 tanks with wastewater, and more water is added every day, and there are hundreds of thousands of gallons contained in each tank… tritium is difficult to filter, and TEPCO is not currently attempting to filter it. Cesium is the radionuclide at the center of the FDA petition… where one radionuclide is detected, others are found as well.” (Footnote: High levels of radioactive cesium cause nausea, vomiting, bleeding, coma, and death.)

At present the US has the highest levels allowable for manmade radiation from nuclear accidents at 1200 Bq/kg for all citizens. By comparison, Japan’s allowable level for adults is 100 Bg/kg and 50 Bg/kg for children.

“Food that is too radioactive for Japan can legally be exported to the US…. It has been reported that food, including seafood, that Japan would ordinarily export to countries that have instituted food bans of Japan’s radioactive food products is now being sold and served to US military service members and their families in Japan. The National Academy for Sciences biologic effect of ionizing radiation states there is a linear relationship between ionizing radiation and the development of solid cancers.” (Roberson)

(Footnote: Because ionizing radiation has enough energy to break an electron away from an atom, it certainly has enough umph to change the chemical composition of any material it connects with. A human body is defenseless.)

The FDA should monitor for cesium in foodstuff, as stated in the FFAN petition. Additionally, food imported from Japan should adhere, at the least, to Japan’s own standards of 100 Bg/kg for adults and 50 Bg/kg for young children before export to the United States.

The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War in Germany suggest 8 Bg/kg for children and 16 Bg/kg for adults as safe tolerable levels.

Congress should start the process to establish adequate testing and establish a viable limit.and verification that food imported from Japan does not exceed Japan’s own restrictions. Other nations have banned Japan’s exports.

The public has a right to information. FFAN is asking Congress to direct the FDA to do its job. It’s in the public interest to know what people are putting in their mouths. If imported foodstuff exceeds Bg/kg limits set by the exporter in Japan, the public should be informed that they are purchasing food from Japan that exceeds Japan’s allowable levels of radioactivity for its own people.

“The myth is being perpetuated that discharges are necessary for decommissioning. But the Japanese government itself admits there is sufficient water storage space in Fukushima Daiichi. Long-term storage would expose the current government decommissioning roadmap as flawed, but that is exactly what needs to happen. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station is still in crisis, posing unique and severe hazards, and there is no credible plan for its decommissioning,” Shaun Burnie, Senior Nuclear Specialist at Greenpeace East Asia.

As for Fukushima discharges, Greenpeace claims that the radiological risks have not been fully assessed, and the biological impacts of tritium, carbon-14, strontium-90 and iodine-129 – to be released with the water – “have been ignored”. (Source: Fukushima: Why is Japan Releasing water and is it Safe? Reuters, Aug. 24, 2023) That statement should be a gamechanger, but most likely it won’t.
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This article was originally published on July 19, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Antarctic Ice Melt – New Sobering Studies

Image by Torsten Dederichs is licensed by Unsplash.
Image by Torsten Dederichs is licensed by Unsplash.

Antarctic Ice Melt – New Sobering Studies

By Robert Hunziker

It was only two years ago that studies of the infamous Thwaites Glacier, aka: the Doomsday Glacier located in West Antarctica, found rapid melting. At the time, scientists said it was “hanging on by its fingernails.” (Source: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Which Could Raise Sea Level by Several Feet, is ‘Hanging by its Fingernails,’ Scientists Say, CNN, September 6, 2022)

Since that warning was issued the planet has vastly exceeded global warming expectations. A new study raises the bet on sea level rise, maybe by a lot. The study warns that the Antarctic ice sheet is melting in a “new, worrying way” that scientific models of sea level rise have failed to account for. (Source: Alexander T. Bradley, et al, Tipping Point in Ice-Sheet Grounding-Zone Melting Due to Ocean Water Intrusion, Nature Geoscience, 2024)

British Antarctic Survey scientists discovered warm ocean water seeping beneath the ice sheet down to the grounding line, which is where the ice rises from the seabed and starts to float. Moreover, adding another dimension, new studies show that small increases in ocean temperatures can have big impact on melting. These new facts raise very serious concerns about all projections of sea level rise.

Moreover, ocean temperatures have been setting new records. “The ocean has now broken temperature records every day for more than a year.” (Source: The Ocean Has Shattered Records for More Than a Year, The New York Times, April 10, 2024)

Making matters more edgy yet, a 2,000-foot-long ice core removed from West Antarctica looks like a game-changer. And it’s not pretty. (Source: Mackenzie M. Grieman, et al, Abrupt Holocene Ice Loss Due to Thinning and Underground in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Nature Geoscience, Feb. 8, 2024)

The 2,000-foot-long ice core is the first paleoclimatic proof that the Antarctic ice sheet can melt very fast in a relatively short period of time.

Under circumstances somewhat like today, but 8,000 years ago, part of the ice sheet melted by 450 meters (1,476 feet, or higher than the Empire State Bldg.) over a period of only 200 years, which was at the end of the last ice age. According to Eric Wolff, glaciologist at University of Cambridge/UK: “We’ve been able to say exactly when it retreated, but we’ve also been able to say how fast it retreated.” (Source: Scientists Discover an Alarming Change in Antarctica’s Past That Could Spell Devasting Future Sea Level Rise, CNN, February 8, 2024)

According to the scientists, in today’s world: “If it does start to retreat, it really will do it very fast.” And of course, the concern is not only 1,476 feet of ice melt over 200 years, but also, and more importantly, what will be the sea level impact of the initial several feet over upcoming decades, assuming a repeat of what occurred 8,000 years ago, which, so far, knock on wood, does not look to have started, yet. But West Antarctica is not going to make a pre-announcement that it’s ready to commence a cascading meltdown!

According to Ted Scambos, glaciologist, Univeristy of Colorado, Boulder: “The amount of ice stored in Antarctica can change very quickly— at a pace that would be hard to deal with for many coastal cities,” Ibid.

The Grieman, et al detailed study of the 8,000-year-old ice core revealed the biggest surprise in recent memory: Antarctic ice meltdowns can happen much faster than current sea level studies assume. According to Wolff: “We actually spent a lot of time checking that we hadn’t made a mistake with the analysis,” Ibid.

Wolff warns that it is crucial to take all measures possible to tackle climate change to avoid “these tipping points.” We do not want the same 1,476-foot ice meltdown to start again at such an alarming rate. The point is: It already happened under similar circumstances as today so it’s an understatement that nation/states should react as soon as possible and take all measures possible to mitigate climate change/global warming.

The most recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report highlights concerns: The month of May had a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 14th consecutive month. The ocean-only temperature for May in the Southern Hemisphere ranked the highest on record.

“Over the past 50 years, the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula has been one of the most rapidly warming parts of the planet. And it has been established that Antarctic Circumpolar Current is warming more rapidly than the global ocean as a whole.” (Source: Impacts of Climate Change, Discovery Antarctica)

Assuming nation/states fail to take enough measures soon enough to mitigate global warming, which increasingly looks likely, a significant issue arises: When should sea walls be built and how high will be high enough?
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This article was originally published on June 28, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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At the Edge of Apocalypse

Photo by Roxanne Desgagnés on Unsplash
Photo by Roxanne Desgagnés is licensed by Unsplash

At the Edge of Apocalypse

By Robert Hunziker

Biblical flooding, scorching heat, collapsing grid system, animals crumbling, waters rising, crops wilting, economy on the brink, and millions displaced.

Welcome to the future of climate change… Pakistan.

If one could classify a global warming beta test as a success towards an ultimate goal of apocalypse, unfortunately, it has turned Pakistan into a country populated by millions of displaced people in the early chapters of a horror story with no ending in sight because it is likely to get worse. Pakistan has been thrashed back and forth from one year (2022) of biblical flooding to years of record-setting heat. Normality has fled, chased out by an ogre of darkened apocalypse in the making.

Wherefore, Inside Climate News d/d June 8, 2024 has a remarkable series entitled Living on Earth, which recently interviewed Rafay Alam, who is an environmental lawyer and a member of Pakistan’s Climate Change Council. The title of the interview: As Temperatures in Pakistan Top 120 Degrees, There’s Nowhere to Run. That interview is the basis for this article about a country of 240 million people at the brink of apocalypse.

Based upon Pakistan’s severe climate experience, here is what Rafay Alam concludes, a widely shared viewpoint throughout the Global South: “There is a significant denialism on climate change in places like the United States. And it angers me because I see people affected. I see animals affected. And this is a lived experience for the global majority, the Global South. It’s extremely infuriating to see people who’ve participated in this global warming deny it, deny any accountability, try and move on as if nothing’s happened and try and continue to make money and drive that bottom line.”

There’s an adage of the 1950s “Ugly Americans” that lingers to this day outside of America’s borders. It pejoratively references Americans as loud, arrogant, self-absorbed, demeaning, thoughtless, ignorant, with ugly ethnocentric behavior, which also applies to U.S. corporate interests internationally. Regrettably, climate change is reviving this debasing dictum in a very big way, 70 years later. And people who think today’s sociopolitical atmosphere is poisoned, divided, and postured for trouble in the USA should look over their shoulders, as anger foments around the world with America a target. Trouble’s universal.

Rafay Alam resides in Lahore (pop. 13M) known as the “City of Gardens.” It is the cultural heart of Pakistan with exquisite arts, cuisine, and music festivals, known for filmmaking and the recognized home of the intelligentsia. Lahore is a sophisticated metropolis that’s a safe place to live. According to the World Crime Index, the city is safer than living in London, New York, or Melbourne.

Yet, life for millions in Pakistan has changed for the worse seemingly overnight. Today, the country experiences persistent heat waves over 120°F in some cities, and summer is just beginning. Anything approaching the normal rhythm of life of past decades has been overwhelmed by brutal severely damaging climate change. The country is still recovering from the biblical flooding of 2022 when normal rainfall turned voracious 400% to 800% beyond anything ever experienced, a torrential downpouring lasting weeks in regions of the country that do not drain into the Indus Basin. Thus, a 100-kilometer (62-mile) artificial lake formed, displacing 10 million and impacting 30 million, bringing in its wake $35B infrastructure damage, roads swept away, schools swept away, hospitals swept away. It will take a generation to rebuild. This is climate change in full blast mode.

Rafay Alam: “We’ve seen temperatures since the middle of May to the first of June currently more than 50 degrees Centigrade, which is well over 120°F. Lahore, where I live is 44°C today, which is about 111°F… I go for a walk in the evenings when the sun sets It’s not unpleasant, but I notice animals and birds collapsed to the ground looking for water, dogs on the side of the road unable to get up… Recently, it was 125°F, the hottest place on Earth, at Mohenjo-Daro, which is home to an ancient civilization.”

Accordingly, Pakistan is not just experiencing a scorching heat wave, it is actively experiencing the climate crisis in all its variations on a real time basis. And according to meteorologists: “It’s going to stay hotter for longer.”

Climate change has wrought an economic nightmare, as Pakistan has sought flood relief that came as loans, not grants or aid, which has doubled Pakistan’s external debt in only two years. This is devastating for a country that is trying to regain its footing and rebuild an economy that climate change clobbered.

Nevertheless, the country is learning to live with devastating temperatures by changing life’s normal patterns. Schools are let out by 12:00 noon but shutdown entirely when temperatures rise too far, which is a common experience of late.

Of even more concern, and possibly the most dangerous scenario of all, the monsoon season is coming by the end of June, early July which will convert dry heat to extreme humid heat with deadly wet bulb temperatures. At 95°F and 70% humidity, it’ll impact the human body like 120°F. That’s deadly because at that level the human body cannot release heat by sweating. Rather, it bakes internal organs. Hmm- it’s been triple digits for some time now with daytime forecasts to remain in triple digits to the end of June, and likely beyond into the heart of the summer.

Agriculture is 20% of Pakistan GDP. And according to Alam, a leading English newspaper recently ran a headline about crops decimated in Pakistan by heat, cotton basically sizzling, maize, mangos, and other vegetables and fodder for cattle, expecting a decline of productivity. Nearly one-half of the Pakistani workforce is in agriculture and they’re being hammered down to the poverty line by unforgiving climate change.

“This heat wave is a man-made event due to the greenhouse gases consumed and thrown into the atmosphere by the Global North since the industrial revolution These greenhouse gases have to stop.” (Alam)

Meanwhile, he claims the country must adapt as soon as possible to an off-the-rails climate system fed by profit-motives outside of Pakistan. He suggests changes to agriculture by working on heat-resistant crops. Currently, no crops can withstand 50-plus Centigrade temperatures. And the water economy must learn to adapt as 90% of water goes to agriculture, which is 20% of GDP employing 40% of the workforce, which is at the poverty line.

Meanwhile, it is currently harvesting season. Agricultural workers are waking up when the sun rises for only a couple of hours of work before it gets too hot to work. When it’s too hot to work any longer, people congregate inside for shelter from the sun. But those who live near fields are warned that snakes and scorpions also seek cooler spaces, entering homes en masse seeking shelter.

Alam’s biggest concern is for most Pakistanis who are middle class, working class and at the poverty line, unable to withstand climate shocks much further. Moreover, there are really not many safe places for them to go to escape global heat, unless they have a rich friend.

Even heading to the Himalaya mountains for cooler terrain could be treacherous. There are over 3,000 glaciers that, due to global warming, form glacial lakes in the mountains. Over time, these blow apart in outburst of devastating unannounced floods bringing down mountainsides as roads and bridges are washed away leaving those seeking cool mountain air stranded. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, the Hindu Kush Himalaya is a “hotspot of risk” for outburst floods.

Pakistan, unfortunately, has become a proving ground for what climate change is capable of. And there’s no reason to expect it to remain confined to the borders of Pakistan.

Rafay Alam first became aware of climate change’s potential impact nearly 20 years ago when he saw Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth (Paramount Classics, May 2006), which opened a lot of eyes. Yet, the nations of the world have failed to adequately confront the primary cause, burning fossil fuels, that fuels radical climate change that’s whiplashed Pakistan’s environment beyond limits.

Alam believes the basis of the legal systems and the international system can’t cope with an existential crisis such as climate change: “One of the worst ways to deal with something like climate change is to divide the world into 200 different countries and have them argue with each other.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -IPCC- is testament to this, 30 years later and CO2 is still increasing each year without missing a beat, targeting Pakistan. But, for certain, Pakistan is not an isolated case.

According to Alam, in conclusion: “Earth’s ecosystem has been in balance since the last ice age… That civilization is over… the way that we interact with each other- extremely heavy energy use, extremely heavy water use, incredibly consumptive of natural resources producing greenhouse gases for just about everything… It’s this behavior, this civilization, which is at risk. And yes, it is very much an apocalypse.”
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This article was originally published on June 21, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Chomsky & UN Forewarnings Revisited

Photo by Matthias Heyde is licensed by Unsplash
Photo by Matthias Heyde is licensed by Unsplash

Chomsky & UN Forewarnings Revisited

By Robert Hunziker

I recently attended a family affair in Upstate NY and was informed that climate change articles, like this one, are too negative, causing close relatives to shutdown and going so far as to ignore articles, too gloomy, too negative, do something more positive. My response: Analyzing the planet’s climate system by studying peer-reviewed scientific publications for over a decade, every year has gotten worse and worse, no letups, more negatives every year… there’s nothing positive about climate change to write about. And people need to know the truth about anthropogenic-led crashing of ecosystems.

Furthermore, one of the key reasons why many Americans don’t accept climate change as an existential issue is because they have been shielded from the most impactful events of climate change, from the truth as experienced by the rest of the world, e.g., Europe’s five-year average temperature has been running 2.3°C above pre-industrial, a danger zone according t0 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2.0° Celsius by 2100 to avoid significant and potentially catastrophic changes to the planet. Hmm. Ipso facto, 75% of Spain is at risk of desertification, according to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

The USA, uniquely. happens to be located in a “global sweet spot” ideally within latitudes and longitudes that first attracted Europeans to a Garden of Eden setting, For example, during the mid-17th century in the words of William Wood of Boston, circa 1634 (Source: Boston’s Flora and Fauna in the 1630s, Boston Public Library): “For the Country it is as well watered as any land under the Sun, every family, or every two families having a spring of sweet waters betwixt them, which is far different from the waters of England being not so, but of a fatter substance, and of a more jetty colour; it is thought there can be so better water in the world.”

“The next commodity the land affords, is good store of Woods, & that not only such as may be needful for fuel, but likewise for the building of Ships, and houses, & Mils, and all manner of water-work about which Wood is necessary. The Timber of the Country grows straight and tall, some trees being twenty, some thirty-foot high, before they spread forth their branches…. Of these swamps, some be ten, some twenty, some thirty miles long, being preserved by the wetness of the soils wherein they grow.”

Today, people in Asia and Europe and Central America do not complain about negative climate articles, rather, they embrace it, believing that more exposure is necessary so people know how to bitch and moan and groan about the failure of political leaders to take heed of top-notch scientists’ warnings for decades that global warming, primarily caused by fossil fuels like CO2, eventually leads to ecosystem collapse and dangerous heatwaves and destructive droughts. Today, unrelenting heatwaves are rampant for all to see but could be only the beginning.

Regarding the Chomsky and UN warnings, it was June 2022 when the UN issued GAR2022, UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction shortly thereafter followed by Noam Chomsky as keynote speaker for the American Solar Energy Society 51st annual conference at the University of New Mexico.

The UN report, for the first time, brought into focus the challenge: “Escalating synergies of climate disasters, economic vulnerability, and ecosystem failures increasingly headed for a juggernaut of collapse.”

On the heels of the UN report about an impending “juggernaut of collapse,” Chomsky’s opening statement at the American Solar Energy Society echoed the UN’s statement: “We are at a unique moment in human history. Decisions that must be made right now will determine the course of future history if there is to be any human history, which is very much in doubt. There is a narrow window in which we must implement measures to avert cataclysmic destruction of the environment.”

Today, there is compelling evidence that both the UN and Chomsky were dead-on correct. But Chomsky’s call for implementing measures to avert cataclysmic destruction of the environment have been mostly ignored. Now, two short years later. killer heat is consuming the lifeblood of megacities in some regions of the planet.

“Water sources are depleted around the world,” according to Victoria Beard, professor of city and regional planning, Cornell University: “Every year, more cities will face ‘Day Zero,’ with no water in their piped systems.” (Source: This Mega-City is Running Out of Water: What Will 22 Million People do When the Taps Run Dry? Phys.org, March 26, 2024)

For example: Mexico City (22M pop.) could run dry this summer. Bogotá (8M pop.) recently started water rationing. Residents of Johannesburg (6M pop.) line up for municipal truck deliveries. South Delhi (2.7M pop.) announced a rationing plan on May 29th. Several cities of southern Europe have rationing plans on the table. In March 2024 China announced its first-ever National-Level Regulations on Water Conservation, a disguised version of water rationing. Global warming is the key problem as severe droughts clobber reservoirs. And global warming is a product of energy creation from fossil fuel emissions such as CO2.

According to Chomsky, the “Energy System” is the provocateur of global warming, and it has enormous institutional breadth, including fossil fuel companies, banks, and other financial institutions and a large part of the legal community. Accordingly, the Energy System’s political base is the Republican Party, and it is the main driving force for global warming which, in turn, threatens megacities with “Day Zero” or dry reservoirs. This is becoming prevalent around the globe.

The fact that the UN Global Assessment Report GAR2022 received little, or no media attention, explains how and why we are in deep trouble; the issue is simply ignored. Yet, it is the first-ever UN flagship global report with findings that current global policies are “accelerating the collapse of human civilization.” It should have been front page news. Importantly, the report does not suggest that collapse is a “done deal.” Rather, without radical change, it’s where the world is headed.

Alas, where is the “radical change” that the UN report said is necessary to prevent collapse? Answer: There is no radical change ongoing, planned, or discussed. Radical change has never been mentioned by any world-recognized authorities.

Celebrated weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, recently commented on global warming’s impact: “Thousands of records are being brutalized all over Asia, which is by far the most extreme event in world climatic history.” (Source: Summer Heat Hits Asia Early, Killing Dozens as one Expert Calls it the ‘Most Extreme Event’ in Climate History, CBS News, May 2, 2024)

“The most extreme event in world climatic history” is a very strong characterization of the impact of climate change and global warming. Dangerous heat waves are sweeping the world like a scythe harvesting wheat and more people are being killed than reported by authorities, especially in India. There’ll never be accurate counts of the dead for public release. Some megacities are currently at knife’s edge of loss of drinking water for millions of residents. They’re not prepared. Water is trucked for firefighting in some megacities and to neighborhoods where residents are parched. This could have been prevented, but it wasn’t.

Of even more immediate concern, an Environmental Emergency has been declared for Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands by Mato Grosso do Sul, the Brazilian state containing most of Pantanal. The emergency has been declared as the number of fires surged by 980%, as of June 5th, well ahead of wildfire season which starts in July/August. This is one of the world’s largest wetlands (10 times Florida’s everglades) which has partially dried out due to ongoing severe drought. (Source: Fires in Brazilian Wetlands Surge 980%, Extreme Drought Expected, Reuters, June 7, 2024)

The Pantanal is the world’s largest freshwater wetland stretching over parts of Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia offering unseen gifts to a vast swath of South America by regulating the water cycle upon which life depends. Its countless swamps, lagoons and tributaries purify water and help prevent floods and droughts. It stores untold amounts of carbon, helping to stabilize the world’s climate. It is one of the wonders of the world, but large areas are blazing afire because of severe drought; it’s global warming at work.

What to do? There are experienced capable people, such as Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, who believe that the failure of world leaders to listen to scientists for decades necessitates a changing of the guard. He’s organizing a worldwide movement.

In summation, the United Nations claims “radical change” is needed, and as stated by Noam Chomsky: “There is a narrow window in which we must implement measures to avert cataclysmic destruction of the environment.” But nobody is doing this on a radical change basis.

Meantime, if megacities run dry, what will millions of city residents do? The risks have never been more pronounced.

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This article was originally published on June 14, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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Where’s the Water?

Photo by Brandon DesJarlais is licensed by Unsplash
Photo by Brandon DesJarlais is licensed by Unsplash

Where’s the Water?

By Robert Hunziker

“Whiskey’s for drinking and water’s for fighting,” a popular adage from the chronicles of the American West that’s starting to come back into vogue.

The world’s megacities are on a knife’s edge of water stress.

Climate change is clobbering water resources and testing the nerves of the world, especially megacities, e.g., Mexico City (pop. 22 million) could run dry this summer. Nearly 90% of greater Mexico City is in severe drought. The country has been in widespread drought since 2021-22. Subsidence is causing the city to sink 20 inches per year because of rapid groundwater extraction supplanting low reservoirs. The Metro is sinking unevenly. The rails are wobbly. The massive city could go dry this year.

Bogotá, a city of 8 million located in a humid patch of the northern Andes Mountains surrounded by cloud forests, has instituted water rationing as of April 15, 2024. The Chingaza Reservoir System is 15% full and if rains do not return soon, it’ll run out of water in two months. The mayor recommended eliminating daily personal showers, with several other suggestions.

Human-caused climate change is enemy number one, and it all starts at the Arctic, influencing the entire Northern Hemisphere, too hot for too long melting reflective ice upsetting an age-old interchange with jet streams at 30,000 feet that drive weather patterns. Like a drunken sailor, the jet streams don’t know which way to go and neither do weather systems. Result, rains for Mexico City reservoirs are horribly weak, if at all, following years of unprecedented drought.

The United Nations General Assembly, NY was briefed last year by leading scientists: “Conflict, Climate and Cooperation.” It’s been 4,500 years since an actual war has broken out over water rights. It took place between two Mesopotamian city-states in what is now called Iraq.

Like 4,500 years ago, tensions over water are on the rise and climate change is largely to blame as fossil fuels lurk in the background. Major cities of the world are at risk of drying out and climate change is the problem, too hot for too long with drought on a rampage, festering big time trouble of Day Zero, as taps go dry, leading candidates: Mexico City, Johannesburg, Cape Town, Jakarta, São Paulo, Beijing, Cairo, Bangalore, Tokyo, London, Bogotá, Moscow, Istanbul (Sources: Euronews and World Resources Institute Aqueduct)

Global warming is impacting a very sensitive touch-and-go relationship between major cities and diminishing water resources. Extreme heat shrinks reservoirs combined with decades of neglect as water infrastructure crumbles and climate change shifts precipitation patterns making once wet regions drier than ever.

The 2024 World Water Development Report claims that nearly one-half of the world’s population experiences “at least temporary severe water scarcity.” Meanwhile, tensons over water are exacerbating conflicts worldwide, Press Release: Water Crises Threaten World Peace, UNESCO, March 2024. More to the point, 2.2 billion people don’t have access to “safely managed drinking water.” This is a guaranteed formula for trouble as desperate people take desperate measures… to survive.

Recent water wars have spilled bloodshed in India, Kenya, and Yemen. And on the Iran-Afghanistan border, conflict rages over water from the Helmand River.

Based upon studies by the Pacific Institute, over the past 18 months there have been 344 instances of water-related conflicts in the world. According to Peter Gleick of Pacific Institute: “We also see a worrying increase in violence associate with water security worsened by drought – climate disruptions, growing populations, and competition for water.” (Source: Water Increasingly at the Center of Conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, LA Times, Dec. 28, 2023)

Climate change is creating a war path, forcing major urban centers to change lifestyles, living with less, and butting heads with a worldwide neoliberal capitalistic economic system that promotes endless growth at any and all costs.

By ignoring the dreadful influence of fossil fuels spewing CO2 whilst powering endless growth that rips apart predictable climate systems of the ages, which has now turned viciously unpredictable, the end may be in sight.

The ineptitude of world leadership to properly judge and deal with human-generated global warming, despite decades of warnings by top notch scientists, and their blatant kowtowing to the fossil fuel interests, is leading down a very difficult pathway. As a result, there are rumblings about how to change direction, for example, The Climate Revolution broadcast on the Climate Emergency Forum featuring Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, who suggests a changing of the guard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc8KS89lG8Y&t=276s

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This article was originally published on June 7, 2024 © Counterpunch
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

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